Novo Nordisk Shares Drop 18% as GLP-1/Amylin Combo CagriSema Shows 20.4% Weight Loss at 68 Weeks

▎Armstrong

On December 20, 2024, Novo Nordisk announced the 68-week efficacy and safety data of the Phase III clinical trial REDEFINE 1 for the combination therapy of Semaglutide + Cagrilintide for weight loss. This Phase III clinical trial enrolled 3,417 patients who were either obese or overweight with one or more risk factors.

After 68 weeks of treatment, 57.3% of patients in the CagriSema group reached the highest dose, compared to 82.5% in the Cagrilintide group and 70.2% in the semaglutide group. The weight loss at 68 weeks was 22.7% for CagriSema, 11.8% for Cagrilintide, 16.1% for semaglutide, and 2.3% for the placebo group.CagriSema、Cagrilintide and Semaglutide Reduce Weight by 20.4%, 9.5%, and 13.8% Respectively Compared to Placebo After 68 Weeks of Treatment.

CagriSema has five Phase III clinical trials ongoing for weight loss, among which REDEFINE 4 is a head-to-head trial with tirzepatide. Novo Nordisk also anticipates that CagriSema can rival tirzepatide.

CagriSema previously achieved a 17% weight loss in a 20-week Phase I clinical trial for weight reduction and a 15.6% weight loss in a 32-week Phase II clinical trial for diabetes with overweight. Novo Nordisk previously anticipated achieving a 25% weight loss in the Phase III clinical trial.

Novo Nordisk's stock price plummeted 18% yesterday, wiping out nearly $70 billion in market value, with its current market cap at $377.5 billion.

In contrast, treatment with tirzepatide 15mg for 72 weeks resulted in a weight loss of 17.8%.

Summary

Strictly speaking, Cagrisema achieved a 20.4% weight loss over 68 weeks with only 57% of patients reaching the highest dose, a figure comparable to the data from 72 weeks of treatment with 15mg of tirzepatide (non-head-to-head). In other words, while Cagrisema’s efficacy is already excellent, the earlier expectation of a 25% weight loss was significantly better than tirzepatide, and now the 20.4% reduction doesn't appear to have as clear an advantage compared to tirzepatide. Considering that Eli Lilly's triple-target therapy shows better efficacy and is in Phase III clinical trials, it remains uncertain whether CagriSema can become the mainstay of Novo Nordisk's weight loss portfolio.