Lilly Revises 2024 Revenue Forecast Downward as Tirzepatide Sales Miss Estimates, Shares Drop 7%

Jan 15, 2025 10:08 CST Updated 10:08

Eli Lilly

Global Pharmaceutical R&D and Production Company

Recently, Eli Lilly and Company projected its full-year 2024 revenue to be approximately $45 billion, about $400 million lower than the previous forecast. Although this figure is $400 million below the lower end of the Q3 expectations, it still exceeds the midpoint of the initial estimate. The company’s 2024 revenue forecast has been adjusted multiple times, with several upward revisions before Q3, followed by a downward adjustment.

Eli Lilly and Company's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to be approximately $13.5 billion, which is $400 million lower than the previous estimate. The company stated that this shortfall is mainly due to a slowdown in the growth of the U.S. glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) market and lower-than-expected inventory levels at the end of the year. Nevertheless, compared with the same period in 2023, the quarterly revenue still achieved a 45% increase. Among this, the diabetes drug Mounjaro® and the cancer treatment drug Zepbound® contributed approximately $3.5 billion and $1.9 billion in sales, respectively. Additionally, fields such as oncology, immunology, and neuroscience also demonstrated strong growth.

Eli Lilly and Company CEO David A. Ricks expressed optimism about the company's long-term growth trajectory. He noted that although the fourth-quarter results fell short of previous forecasts, the performance of key drugs met expectations. He also highlighted advancements in the company’s production capabilities, particularly the availability of glucagon-like peptide-1 drug doses throughout the quarter.

Eli Lilly's stock fell 7% on Tuesday afternoon due to this news. Previously, the company's stock had dropped more than 6% in the third quarter as sales of the weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro fell short of expectations. However, for the year as a whole, Eli Lilly's stock remains on an upward trend, with a 34% increase from the beginning of 2024.

Looking ahead to 2025, Eli Lilly and Company expects revenue to be between $58 billion and $61 billion. The company plans to increase production capacity, with the anticipated saleable doses of glucagon-like peptide-1 in the first half of 2025 projected to rise by at least 60% compared to the same period in 2024. Additionally, the launch of new drugs Jaypirca®, Ebglyss™, Omvoh®, and Kisunla™, along with new indications for existing drugs and the further expansion of Mounjaro in global markets, will also drive revenue growth.

Eli Lilly and Company's full financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and more detailed guidance for 2025 will be announced on February 6, 2025.

Reference: Eli Lilly and Company

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