AI-Analyzed Pharma Annual Reports: Semaglutide Poised to Dethrone Keytruda as Global 'Blockbuster Drug'

The threshold for the title of "King of Medicines" is approaching 30 billion US dollars.

According to the latest released 2024 annual report, K drug Keytruda (Pembrolizumab) successfully defended its title as the global "top drug" with a revenue of $29.482 billion in 2024, while Semaglutide generated a revenue of $29.296 billion in 2024, with a difference of less than $2 billion between the two.

From double-digit sales to nearly $30 billion in annual revenue, Keytruda took 10 years, while semaglutide only took 5 years.

In terms of growth rate, Keytruda (K药), which has been on the market for nearly a decade, saw an 18% year-over-year increase in 2024. In contrast, the rapidly rising star semaglutide recorded a 38% year-over-year increase, demonstrating a clear advantage. As a result, the market believes that semaglutide is highly likely to claim the top spot in 2025. Both Keytruda and semaglutide will face the issue of a patent cliff, and how they address these challenges in the future will be crucial in their battle for the title of "best-selling drug."

VCBeat tries to interpret the changes in the market behind the competition for the title of "King of Drugs" through DeepSeek's analysis of annual corporate reports, to see how the most popular large AI models view this.

Long-term competitiveness is considered by DeepSeek to be the key to MSD's development.

The field of oncology treatment has always been a fiercely competitive arena. Even GSK, which focuses on vaccines, achieved a 98% year-on-year sales growth in the oncology sector in 2024. GSK has also strengthened its ADC pipeline through BD deals. Pfizer has similarly excelled, with its oncology business revenue reaching $15.612 billion in 2024, marking a 25% year-on-year increase. The ADC drugs acquired from the $43 billion acquisition of Seagen in 2023 contributed over $3 billion in revenue in 2024.

Not only MNCs, but also local Biotechs hope to gain a share within the sphere of influence of K medicine.

With the success of K medicine, PD-1 has become a hot track. After years of domestic competition, products from several pharmaceutical companies such as Hengrui Medicine, BeiGene, Junshi Biosciences, and Innovent Biologics have been approved for marketing. Relying on price advantages and medical insurance coverage, these products will also erode part of the K medicine market.

In addition, China's Biotech is also accelerating innovation.

If Akeso's PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody outperforms Keytruda in a head-to-head trial, it will become highly controversial. In January 2025, Innovent Biologics registered a Phase 2 clinical trial for its world-first PD-1/IL-2α-bias bispecific antibody fusion protein to be compared head-to-head with Keytruda. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently over 100 PD-1 multispecific antibodies and antibody fusion protein drugs under development globally.

More importantly, the patent for Keytruda will gradually expire starting from 2028, by which time the emergence of generic drugs will encroach on its market share. Currently, pharmaceutical companies such as Amgen and Sandoz are already gearing up to make significant moves. Amgen has registered a Phase 3 clinical trial for ABP 234, a biosimilar of Keytruda, on Clinicaltrials.gov, and will conduct a head-to-head comparison with Keytruda in non-small cell lung cancer.

With the upcoming expiration of Keytruda's patent and numerous competitors on the chase, how will Merck maintain its competitiveness in the coming years? At the 2025 JPM Conference, Merck disclosed some insights, as summarized by DeepSeek: pipeline diversification.

Product Layout of Merck for the Next Three Years, Source: Corporate Official Website

In simple terms, Merck has already started to lay out multiple directions, including HER3 ADC, ROR1 ADC, B7-H3 ADC, Trop2 ADC, and combination therapies with Keytruda. In November 2024, Merck also acquired the global license for LM-299, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody under development by LaNova Medicines, for an upfront payment of $588 million and potential milestone payments of up to $2.7 billion. Additionally, Merck acquired Abceutics, an ADC rising star, for a potential consideration of $208 million.

The other side that DeepSeek didn't see is that, despite numerous competitors, Keytruda still has a deep moat, such as its continuously expanding indications. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2024, Keytruda has been approved for more than 40 indications in the United States, over 30 in Europe, and nearly 20 in China. It covers multiple cancer types, including non-small cell lung cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, and melanoma. In 2024, Keytruda maintained steady sales growth in the Chinese market, mainly due to its widespread application in several indications such as NSCLC.

At the same time, Merck & Co. has also increased its investment in Keytruda within the fields of combination therapies and early-stage cancer treatment, which can effectively consolidate its market position. Additionally, in November 2024, the successful Phase 3 clinical trial of Keytruda's subcutaneous formulation significantly reduced the average administration time, further boosting Keytruda's sales.

Despite the encircling competition, K drug's growth momentum will continue before its patent expires. However, against rivals outside the oncology field, K drug is powerless.

DeepSeek believes that ensuring production capacity, semaglutide can continue to soar.

In 2024, Novo Nordisk made significant efforts to enhance its production capacity. These included acquiring Catalent, a leading CDMO, and gaining ownership of three of its plants located in Italy, the United States, and Belgium; investing 8.5 billion Danish kroner to establish a brand-new manufacturing facility in Odense, Denmark; and spending $4.1 billion to expand its manufacturing capacity in the U.S. Of course, Novo Nordisk's competitors are doing the same—Lilly invested an additional $5.3 billion in 2024 to expand the capacity of its manufacturing base in Indiana.

Notably, the Chinese market is expected to become a battleground for head-to-head competition between the two giants in the future.

In early January 2025, Eli Lilly announced the official launch of tirzepatide in China, including its weight loss indication. Around the same time, Novo Nordisk announced the official launch of oral semaglutide in China. Compared to injections, oral administration significantly enhances patient experience and effectively boosts product sales.

By the end of January 2025, the U.S. government announced that Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic, among 15 other drugs, have been included in the Medicare drug negotiation list. This means that the self-paid weight-loss drug market in China has become particularly important for these two companies.

To this end, both companies have increased their production capacity in China. For instance, Novo Nordisk invested approximately 4 billion RMB in Tianjin for the expansion of its sterile formulation project, while Eli Lilly invested about 1.5 billion RMB to upgrade the production capacity of its Suzhou plant, aiming to expand the production scale of innovative drugs for type 2 diabetes and obesity.

In addition, as the core patent of Semaglutide in China is set to expire in March 2026, a large number of domestically produced GLP-1 products are waiting to enter the market. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 20 similar products in China that have entered the clinical stage. Companies such as Jiuyuan Gene, Livzon Group, United Laboratories, and Qilu Pharmaceutical have already submitted their applications for market approval.

Like K drug, semaglutide is also continuously expanding its indications. Currently, there are over a hundred clinical trials of semaglutide underway, including complications from diabetes and obesity, cardiovascular diseases, as well as chronic kidney disease, heart failure, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, and cardiovascular diseases. Semaglutide is even broadening its indications to include Alzheimer's disease (Phase 3 clinical trials), ischemic stroke, Parkinson's disease, polycystic ovary syndrome, and peripheral artery disease.

Deepseek Comparison of Merck and Novo Nordisk, Image Source: Deepseek

Overall, before the patent expiration, the competition in the GLP-1 field is still mainly between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. It is precisely because of Eli Lilly's lagging behind that semaglutide has a great chance to ascend to the top as the "king of drugs" by 2025. After analyzing the annual reports of Novo Nordisk and Merck, DeepSeek concluded that Novo Nordisk has better prospects based on operating indicators, core business potential, and future strategies and risks. As for how things will actually develop, let us wait and see.