Ribo Biosciences Turns to HKEX After 18 Years of Losses: Can 'Technology-for-Cash' Deals Justify a RMB 3.58 Billion Valuation?

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Suzhou Ribo Life Science Co., Ltd., established 18 years ago, recently submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, making another attempt at the capital market four years after its failed attempt on the STAR Market. As one of the earliest companies in China to venture into small nucleic acid drugs, Ribo Life Science once attracted star investment firms such as CICC and Hillhouse with its technological prowess.

However, until now, the company has not achieved product commercialization. Its revenue in 2023 was only 44,000 yuan, and although it increased to 143 million yuan in 2024 through cooperation with multinational pharmaceutical companies, the accumulated losses over the two years still amounted to 718 million yuan. Currently, the company is facing numerous challenges, including the lagging progress of its R&D pipeline compared to competitors, reliance on partners, and a valuation that has regressed to what it was five years ago. Amid these multiple challenges, can the company successfully open the door to the capital market?

　The Core Pipeline of the Previous IPO May Have "Failed" with New Strong Rivals Surrounding

Ribo Life Science was founded in 2007. The company is committed to developing innovative therapies for cardiovascular, metabolic, kidney, and liver diseases, with a particular focus on siRNA therapies. To date, the company has six self-developed drug pipelines in clinical trials, four of which are in Phase II clinical trials and one is in Phase III clinical trials.

A comparison with the prospectus issued during the 2020 push for the STAR Market reveals that RBD1007, as the fastest progressing pipeline under development by the company, completed data analysis for international multicenter Phase II/III studies in 2021, but has yet to become a drug. Notably, products such as RBD4988 and RBD1006, which were highlighted in the previous prospectus as having entered Phase II clinical trials, were not mentioned in this updated version of the prospectus and may have been "abandoned."

It should be noted that in each phase of new drug clinical trials, every process has its own specific milestones to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technology in the current stage. The further along the process, the greater the difficulty and the higher the value of return on R&D investment. Taking Phase II clinical trials as an example, they are highly significant throughout the R&D cycle but also have a high elimination rate, which is why they are often referred to as the "Valley of Death" in new drug development.

Following the previous core pipeline ending in "failure," Ribo Life Science's new core pipeline under research has been changed to RBD4059, an siRNA drug for treating thrombotic diseases; RBD5044 for treating hypertriglyceridemia; and RBD1016 for treating chronic hepatitis B and chronic hepatitis D. The relevant pipelines are currently in Phase II clinical trials, and the clinical utility of the products as well as their final success in becoming drugs still face significant uncertainties.

More worrying is that, from the perspective of market competition, Ribo Life Science's R&D progress has clearly lagged behind its competitors. For example, Ribo Life Science's core product RBD4059 is currently in Phase II clinical trials, while Novartis' similar product has already entered Phase III. In the lipid-lowering field, Ionis' APOC3-targeting drug has long been on the market, and Ribo Life Science's RBD5044 has yet to release clinical data, making its so-called "Best-in-Class" potential still questionable.

　Valuation Drops Back to C+ Round, Cash Flow Under Significant Pressure

From a valuation perspective, the valuation trajectory of Ribo Life Science has been like a roller coaster. When the company completed its Series A financing in 2015, its valuation was only 4.56 billion yuan. Subsequently, with the capital market's enthusiasm, the valuation skyrocketed to 3.15 billion yuan during the Series C2 financing in 2020, and reached as high as 4.87 billion yuan during the Series E2 round in 2024.

However, after the craze faded, the company's latest equity transfer valuation dropped to 3.58 billion yuan, equal to the level of the C+ round five years ago, almost wiping out years of financing achievements. Behind the shrinking valuation lies a significant mismatch between R&D investment and commercialization capabilities. In 2023, the company’s revenue was only 44,000 yuan, and although it increased to 143 million yuan in 2024 through cooperation with Boehringer Ingelheim, 90% of it relied on a single partner, making the revenue structure relatively fragile.

In 2023 and 2024, the company's total R&D expenditure reached 590 million yuan, with accumulated net losses of approximately 718 million yuan. Moreover, by the end of 2024, the company had only 168 million yuan in cash, while interest-bearing debt amounted to 399 million yuan, significantly pressuring its capital chain. If this IPO attempt fails again, the risk of a cash flow disruption could directly threaten the R&D progress.

To alleviate financial pressure, Ribo Life Science has frequently adopted licensing collaboration models to "replenish resources" in recent years. However, this strategy actually conceals potential risks. The prospectus reveals that targeted delivery and chemical modification technologies are the key determinants for the targeting characteristics, potency, and favorable safety of siRNA drugs, and thus represent the most crucial technology for the success of siRNA drugs.

Ribo Life Science is one of the few companies globally that owns self-developed and clinically validated GalNAc delivery technology, making this technology the company's most crucial core asset. In 2023, the company licensed its liver-targeting delivery technology to Boehringer Ingelheim for the development of MASH therapy in a deal worth over $2 billion. In the same year, it granted Qilu Pharmaceutical the rights to RBD7022, an anti-PCSK9 drug, in Greater China for more than 700 million yuan.

On the surface, these collaborations bring in short-term cash flow, but after licensing the core delivery technology, the agreements did not specify the ownership of improvement patents. If Boehringer Ingelheim develops derivative therapies based on this technology, Ribo Life Science may struggle to share in the benefits. By fully ceding commercialization rights in Greater China to Qilu Pharma in exchange for a “high double-digit” sales royalty, they relinquish pricing power and market dominance. This “technology-for-cash” model, while addressing immediate financial pressures, could potentially mortgage future value.

Editorial Responsibility: Company Watch