Eli Lilly Emerges as the Undisputed GLP-1 Leader with Tirzepatide Dominating Global Sales Projections

Recently,EvaluatePharma Releases "2025 Global Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook".

The report shows,By 2030, the total global sales of prescription drugs are expected to increase to $1.756 trillion, at which point GLP-1 drug sales will account for prescriptions.MedicineTotal Sales9%."They are in a class of their own" and "stand out uniquely",EvaluatePharma commented as follows.

Globally in pharmaceuticalsSalesGLP-1 Products Occupy Half of the TOP10 Predicted List, includingMounjaro（Tirzepatide）、Zepbound（Tirzepatide）、Ozempic（Semaglutide）、Wegovy（Semaglutide) and Cagrisema。

The GLP-1 CrazeThe biggest beneficiary is none other than Eli Lilly, according to EvaluatePharma."Eli Lilly's dominance in this race has become evident." According to Eli Lilly's financial report, the GLP-1R/GIPR agonist tirzepatide (Mounjaro andZepbound) reached $16.5 billion in sales in 2024, nearly matching the sales performance of semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy) in its sixth year on the market ($18.4 billion) in just two years.

Tirzepatide will continue to create sales miracles.According to the forecast by EvaluatePharma,Tirzepatide2030Global SalesThis figure will reach a staggering $61.7 billion — three times the peak sales of the previous "blockbuster drug" Humira (adalimumab) at $21.2 billion, and twice the 2024 sales of the current "blockbuster drug" Keytruda (pembrolizumab) at $29.5 billion.

InEvaluatePharma'sIn遐想中,Eli Lilly and Company Will Also Become the Pharma Company with the Highest Revenue in 2030, the growth rate is unparalleled.

By contrast, Novo Nordisk appeared somewhat disappointed,Wegovy's Long DurationProduction shortages and differences in GLP-1 product layout strategies have limited its expansion in the diabetes and obesity fields. Since June 2024, Novo Nordisk's stock price has fallen by half.

Novo Nordisk alsoAdmitting to some mistakes, even surprisingly in May this year,Dismissed CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen。

Nevertheless, Novo Nordisk inThe development capabilities in the fields of diabetes and obesity are beyond doubt. SubsequentThe upcoming semaglutide compound drugCagrisema wasEvaluatePharmaListed as the most valuable R&D project, with expected peak sales reaching $80 billion.

The drug successfully completed two Phase III studies earlier, but the efficacy data seems to have fallen short of investors' expectations. Earlier this month, Novo Nordisk initiated a new Phase III study (REDEFINE 11) for further evaluation.CagrisemaWeight loss potential over longer periods and at different doses. IfCagrisemaCannot demonstrate superiority in the studyZepbound, Novo Nordisk will face pressure again, after allCagrisema'sThe production process is more complex than semaglutide.

Immunoinflammatory drugs remain promising. AbbVie's Skyrizi (risankizumab) and Sanofi/Regeneron's Dupixent (dupilumab) have not yet reached their peak, with projected sales of $26.6 billion and $25.1 billion respectively by 2030.

Antitumor drugs have shown remarkable performance this year,Keytruda Takes Over from HumiraAfter passing the "Medicine King" baton, a new sales record was created.But in the next five years,Antineoplastic DrugsThe development momentum is not as strong as GLP-1 drugs andImmunoinflammatory drugs, such as pembrolizumab, nivolumab, daratumumab and other heavyweights will gradually lose patent protection. The oncology field needs the next...Keytruda enters the market.

Merck is launchingPembrolizumabSkinSubcutaneous Injection FormulationsTo reduce the loss of Keytruda's market exclusivity period. Evaluate considers this a textbook case of pharmaceutical lifecycle management, and GLP-1 drugs may replicate this strategy — assets such as the oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron and the triple agonist Retatrude will likely play a role in the future.Sweep the Market。

In this report,EvaluatePharma alsoAcknowledged the rapid rise of Chinese pharmaceutical companies, stating that "Chinese drug development scientists are no longer limited to imitation," but instead "carefully design products." The inclusion of Akeso Biopharma's Eftansomab in the list of the most valuable R&D projects is one such proof.

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