Shenwan Hongyuan: Oligonucleotide Therapeutics Enter Rapid Growth Phase as Domestic Companies Accelerate Expansion into Chronic Disease Markets

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating,According to the Sullivan report data, the global small nucleic acid drug market size grew from US$2.7 billion in 2019 to US$4.6 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3%. Driven by continuous technological advancements, increasing regulatory approvals, and expanding clinical validation, the global small nucleic acid drug market is expected to accelerate its growth, achieving a CAGR of 26.1% from 2023 and reaching US$46.7 billion by 2033.With the gradual commercialization of overseas products, China's innovative drug companies have also been accelerating the layout of small nucleic acid drugs in recent years. Unlike the classic model of overseas giants Alnylam and Ionis, which progresses from rare diseases to common diseases, China’s small nucleic acid research and development has chosen to directly enter the chronic disease track, with indications mainly focused on major diseases such as cardiovascular conditions, hepatitis B, and cancer.

Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows:

Small nucleic acid drug technology is gradually maturing, offering significant advantages.

Compared with traditional small molecule drugs and antibody drugs, small nucleic acid drugs have significant advantages such as shorter R&D cycles, abundant targets, long-lasting effects, and higher R&D success rates. In terms of mechanism of action, small nucleic acid drugs directly target the mRNA level, enabling them to reach "undruggable" targets that are difficult for traditional drugs to address, providing entirely new treatment approaches for many refractory diseases.

From Rare Diseases to Common Diseases: Small Nucleic Acid Drugs Enter a Rapid Development Phase

Currently, a total of 22 small nucleic acid drugs have been approved globally (of which 3 have been withdrawn), mainly focusing on rare disease areas such as Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA), Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD), and Transthyretin Amyloidosis (ATTR). In recent years, as data on small nucleic acid drugs in areas like hyperlipidemia, hepatitis B, and hypertension have emerged, the trend of small nucleic acid drugs expanding from rare diseases to chronic and common diseases has become evident, with the market expected to expand at an accelerated pace.

According to the Sullivan report data, the global small nucleic acid drug market size grew from US$2.7 billion in 2019 to US$4.6 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3%. Driven by continuous technological advancements, increasing regulatory approvals, and expanding clinical validation, the global small nucleic acid drug market is expected to accelerate its growth at a CAGR of 26.1% from 2023, reaching US$46.7 billion by 2033.

Chinese companies accelerate the capture of blue ocean markets, focusing on data reading and BD progress

As overseas products gradually become commercialized, China's innovative drug companies have also been accelerating the development of small nucleic acid drugs in recent years. Unlike the classic model adopted by overseas giants Alnylam and Ionis, which progresses from rare diseases to common diseases, China’s small nucleic acid drug research has chosen to directly enter the chronic disease market, with indications primarily focused on major diseases such as cardiovascular conditions, hepatitis B, and cancer. Currently, multiple domestically developed products are in Phase I/II clinical trials. It is recommended to pay attention to subsequent clinical data readouts and potential overseas licensing opportunities.

In terms of the target

It is recommended to focus on companies with independent technology platforms and more competitive pipelines, including Ribo Life Science, Sirnaomics-B (02257), Bowang Pharmaceutical, Yikang Pharmaceutical (688658.SH), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), Brii Biosciences-B (02137), and Hengrui Medicine (01276). Outstanding overseas companies include Alnylam (ALNY.US), Ionis (IONS.US), and Arrowhead (ARWR.US).

Risk Warning

Risks of R&D progress falling short of expectations, risks of product ramp-up falling short of expectations, and risks of price reductions due to intensified product competition.