Pharmaceutical Giants' 2025 Year-End Market Performance: Winners and Losers Amid Volatility

Author｜YY

2025 The global pharmaceutical capital market experienced rare and severe fluctuations this year. At the beginning of the year, the healthcare sector was generally under pressure due to a combination of factors such as changing tariff policies, ongoing U.S. drug pricing reforms, and an increasingly strict regulatory environment, leading to a noticeable decline in investor risk appetite. By mid-year, the biotech index (XBI) Once fell close to the beginning of the year10%. However, from7 Starting from the month, market sentiment suddenly showed a significant reversal,XBI Since the low point, the cumulative rebound has approached50%, and ultimately at approximately for the whole year35% Closed with an increase.

From the sector level, this is a“First Suppress, Then Promote”The year; but if we further observe the individual performance of large pharmaceutical companies, a more significant fact will be discovered:SomePharmaceutical giantSome companies continue to solidify their fundamentals and strengthen their growth logic amidst fluctuations, while others further expose structural issues amid an overall rebound.（Figure1）。This differentiation is not accidental but rather the result of multiple factors such as pipeline, market, and policy environment叠加而成.The performance gap between companies directly stems from specific events that occurred during the year: some companies delivered clear outcomes on key products, critical data, and pivotal business decisions, which supported their stock prices; others encountered clinical trial failures, management changes, or policy impacts in the same year, causing capital to naturally adopt a wait-and-see attitude. This divergence is not driven by sentiment but reflects each company's unique situation. 2025 The result formed under the promotion of annual self-events.

Figure1. 2025YearMNCMarket Value Change Comparison Chart (Based on2025Year1Month1Day as the benchmark,2025Year12Month15Day is the current market value). (Image source:Image Source:FirstWord Pharma）

Talking about a bountiful year in the fragrance of rice flowers:2025Year of Success

2025 Johnson & Johnson, among the top-performing companies this year,GSK, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Eli Lilly (Figure1), although their routes to market value growth differ, when viewed together, several common threads can be summarized: First, there is a clearly visible path to earnings realization, not just a distant blueprint; second, key products and pipeline milestones have provided the market with hard data this year; third, management did not passively wait in the face of uncertainties such as tariffs and drug prices, but proactively adjusted their pace and focus.

Figure2. Johnson & Johnson,GSK, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Eli Lilly2025Annual Market Value Trend Chart (Based on1Month1Daily market value as the benchmark). (Image source:FirstWord Pharma）

For Johnson & Johnson,2025 The year was originally a year before the onset of "dark clouds pressing down on the city, as if to crush it."StelaraThis product's annual sales exceeded100The ultra-blockbuster product worth billions of dollars has already lost market exclusivity in the United States. In fact, like the vast majority of comparable products, such mega-assets typically begin a significant downward trajectory in sales a year before patent expiration.StelaraThe year-on-year decrease rates in sales for the first and second quarters of this year were respectively33.7%And42.7%, has already shown the trend of fading glory. However, despite the undeniable fact that the former champion is on the decline, Johnson & Johnson2025Achieving the "better-than-expected results and raising sales guidance" for three consecutive quarters in a year, the management even emphasized more than once that the company is the first healthcare enterprise to maintain growth after losing the exclusivity period of such a core asset.

This calmness certainly does not come out of thin air. On one hand, Johnson & Johnson has proactively utilized its expertise in the inflammation field.Tremfya (Quarterly sales exceeded10Billion USD) hedgedStelara The decline has reduced the impact of a cliff-like drop in a single product; on the other hand, the multiple myeloma business in2025 Continue to increase in volume year by year,Darzalex Still the fastest-growing drug internally (quarterly sales exceeding30billion US dollars), and withTecvayli The combination regimen inMajesTEC-3 Obtaining convincing data in clinical research has helped this combination gainFDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD), leaving room for further expansion in the hematology-oncology market in the following years.

More importantly, Johnson & Johnson did not cut back on R&D investment despite stabilizing its commercial operations. At the beginning of the year, the company...146 Billion-dollar price acquisitionIntra-Cellular Therapeutics, strengthening the field of neuropsychiatric diseases; at the end of the year, it also partnered withKelonia Achievein vivo CAR-T Cooperation, even if the transaction terms are not yet fully transparent, the market has at least seen its forward-looking layout in the next generation of cell therapy technology. From the stock price trend, Johnson & Johnson's pullback this year has basically corresponded to...4 Monthly Tariff News and5 Discussions on macro events such as monthly drug price policies, rather than the company itself, are a level of trust enjoyed by only a very few companies.

GSK This year's performance can be described as a rebound from the bottom.2024 In that year, it was almost at the bottom among large pharmaceutical companies, with its stock price falling about8%, long considered to be in the shadow of the British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca. By the time2025 The year marked a shift in the landscape, with the most critical turning point beingBlenrep RegainFDA Approved.

This product for the treatment of multiple myelomaADCThe drug was once withdrawn from the market due to failing to meet data standards.GSK This has come at a considerable commercial and reputational cost. However, new survival data this year has once again convinced regulatory authorities.FDA In10 The moon opens another door for it. Even though the market is still uncertain whether it can reach the sales peak previously envisioned by the company, a product once deemed a failure...ADC The fact that it can return in this way is itself a signal to investors: this company still has opportunities in the oncology field.

At the same time,GSK In2025 The revenue structure is also undergoing adjustments this year. The past heavy reliance on vaccines has eased somewhat, with the specialty drugs segment showing a more prominent performance, helping the company maintain overall growth despite a slowdown in vaccine sales in key markets like China. Additionally, there is a symbolically significant event, namelyCEO Emma Walmsley Announced resignation,Luke Miels Passing the BatonCEO Position.GSKStock price in9 A significant rebound occurred months later.

Of course, there are also hidden concerns beneath the optimism. Morgan Stanley pointed out,GSK Some of this year's increase has an "overextended momentum," and the future still needs to face2028 The expiration of the patent for the combination of dolutegravir and other drugs, as well as2026 A Few Catalysts That May Not Be Very Active in the Year:bepirovirsen In hepatitis B,camlipixant In chronic cough, andB7-H3 TargetedADC Reading in Small Cell Lung Cancer. For High-Level ChangesGSKFor,2026The test of the year requires painstaking efforts to deal with.

AstraZeneca in2025 The stock price increase for the year is close to40%, inMNCRanked among the top in China.

AstraZeneca's response has not been to avoid risk, but rather to more clearly shift its focus toward regions willing to pay for innovation. On one hand, management has openly stated that the UK and Europe as a whole underfund innovative drugs, with research investment and pricing misaligned, calling for higher prices and increased investment. On the other hand, the company has further expanded its presence in the U.S. market, ultimately leading to the decision to list directly on the New York Stock Exchange, deeply tying itself to the American capital market.

ADC Direction,Enhertu AndDatroway The map of indications in2025 Continued to expand in the year, consolidating its presence in this field; in the cardiovascular and metabolic areas, it has already obtained antihypertensive drugs.baxdrostat TheIII Period data, and for2026 Three parallel routes were laid out after the year: oralGLP-1 CandidateAZD5004, Dual Receptor AgonistAZD9550 Andamylin Receptor AgonistAZD6234. These products have not yet been converted into revenue, but are sufficient to support the valuation level "to2030 Annual revenue reached800 The medium- and long-term goal of "billion dollars" will not be easily negated.

Novartis' situation reflects the strategy of a stable transition during structural adjustment.2025 In the second half of the year, with the expiration of patents for a group of older small-molecule products and revenue declines exceeding expectations, the company did face certain pressures, particularly in the cardiovascular sector.Entresto It is no longer as dominant as it was a few years ago. But at the same time, the company has taken precautions and laid the groundwork for a new generation of assets to fully take over.

Kisqali AndScemblix The most typical representative.2025 At the end of the year, Novartis raised the long-term sales forecast for these two drugs, clearly signaling to the market that this pair would be the main source of revenue in the next phase. Newly approved...BTK Inhibitorremibrutinib（Rhapsido) The application on chronic spontaneous urticaria has added a new piece to the puzzle of revenue in the field of allergy and immunology. Meanwhile, radioligand therapyPluvicto And lipid-lowering drugsLeqvio Although the progress is relatively slow, it is steadily penetrating the market, providing marginal support for the company's mid-term cash flow.

More notably, like AstraZeneca, Novartis2025 Repeated public calls throughout the year for Europe to increase investment in pharmaceutical payments and R&D, while announcing plans to build additional production bases in the United States. This kind of "public pressure"...+ The dual operation of "actual migration" is equivalent to telling the capital market: the company will not passively accept a low-price environment but will actively migrate to markets with higher returns. Wait until...2026 Year,pelacarsen When the outcome data in the cardiovascular disease field is released, the market is likely to focus on this.Lp(a) The route gives Novartis another chance for valuation reassessment.

Lilly in2025 The stock price performance over the year has been nothing short of volatile. The market value once surpassed one trillion US dollars but experienced significant declines on certain trading days (such as the first half of March, the first half of May, and early August). Particularly in the third quarter, oral...GLP-1 orforglipron The clinical results were somewhat disappointing to the market, compounded by external concerns aboutGLP-1 Concerns over potential stricter cost controls on drugs once put significant pressure on Eli Lilly's market value.

The real turning point came when8 Months later. The price discussion surrounding obesity and diabetes treatment gradually shifted from bargaining to how to expand the cash-paying market. Lilly'sGLP-1 The revenue potential demonstrated by the product in cash payment channels has led the market to reassess its profit margins. What originally appeared to be a pricing strategy under pressure has unexpectedly turned into a way to expand the base of self-paying customers.11 In the month, the company's market value finally reached the unprecedented peak of one trillion US dollars in the history of the pharmaceutical industry.

IntirzepatideIn addition to this foundation, Eli Lilly and Company in2025 The year also saw substantial progress in two pipeline developments: one being a triple receptor agonist.retatrutide The clinical success has laid the foundation for its next phase of development in the metabolic disease field; the other isabemaciclibCompetitive data has been obtained in breast cancer, adding a promising pivot to its oncology portfolio. Looking ahead2026 Year,orforglipron The market performance, and the head-to-head competition with Novartis in the field of adjuvant treatment for breast cancer, as well asretatrutide MultipleIII The readings from the trial period will continue to test whether the company's current high valuation is justified at different levels.

In Spring, My Longing Heart Does Not Blossom with Flowers; Each Bit of Yearning Turns to Ash:

2025Year of Disappointment

2025Year, withSomeMNCCompanyHave to face the year-end results with a year-on-year decline in market value.For these companies, the issueNotNot just one or two quarterly financial reportsSuch a city and fortressThe gains and losses, but investors are beginning to question their medium- and long-term trajectory.，Especially, where the growth comes from, how long can the original core assets last, and whether they can adjust the pace after changes in policies and competitive environment.

Figure3. Novo Nordisk,BMS、Pfizer2025Annual Market Value Trend Chart (Based on1Month1Market value as of the day). (Image source:FirstWord Pharma）

In all 2025 Among the large pharmaceutical companies with poor performance this year, Novo Nordisk is undoubtedly the most...DisappointmentOne of.Novo NordisksemaglutideSuch a powerful asset that could rival the wealth of nations, yet its stock market performance this year has been like "fireworks fading quickly."

Entire 2025 The year has been marked by several overlapping events that have created structural pressure for Novo Nordisk. First, in the first half of the year...CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen Due to the resignation announcement over stock performance and loss of market share in the U.S. obesity market, this kind of high-level turnover triggered by capital market dissatisfaction itself signals tension between management and investors. Subsequently, the company cut its sales forecast for obesity products mid-year, coupled with internal candidates...Mike Doustdar Appointed as the newCEO, triggering the company's worst single-day stock performance in nearly four decades.

A deeper layer of concern comes from pipeline selection. Novo Nordisk is attempting to achieve this by semaglutide Expanding into the Alzheimer's disease field to alleviate reliance on a single product, but this high-risk attempt failed this year. The result instead reinforced market...semaglutide Dependent Concerns，The company has always been slow to GLP-1 Build a second strong growth mainline outside of it, andsemaglutide Patent Protection in the United StatesCountdown has already begun。

Theoretically,2026 A turning point may still occur in the year.CagriSema Comparisontirzepatide TheREDEFINE-4 III The mid-term study is regarded as a key battle to restore Novo Nordisk's mid-term competitiveness. If the results exceed expectations, the company's obesity treatment portfolio may be re-evaluated in the competitive position within the United States.，2026The year will become a key time node for the "Novo Nordisk Revival" goal.

Bristol Myers Squibb These two yearsThe important clinical trials seem to often face heartbreaking outcomes.. The company, on the one hand, is striving to offset with new products Revlimid、Eliquis AndOpdivo These oldHeavyweightThe pressure of patent expiration; on the other handTheThe reality, however,，2025 Several key readings this year did not go as smoothly as expected. The most watched isCobenfy In the add-on treatment of schizophreniaARISE Research, this project carriesKaruna This amount140 Billions of dollars acquisition with high expectations, but the final result was a failed key trial. Investors will naturally reassess the rationality of this major acquisition.

Next, the company turned its attention to another area of potential growth: Alzheimer's disease-related psychiatric symptoms, hoping to achieve success through... ADEPT-2 Trials to open up a larger market. However, when reviewing the clinical implementation,BMS Had to announce a full review of the trial center, which revealed issues at some sites.Unconventional Phenomenon, which requires increasing enrollment and postponing the data readout. Management explained that this is to enhance the probability of success and make the data more reliable. However, for investors who were already uneasy about the clinical timeline, this primarily implies a further increase in time costs.

Objectively speaking,BMS In2025 The financial reports over the years are not bad, and have repeatedly exceeded profit expectations. However,PickyThe capital market repeatedly uses stock pricesTo make a statement,If the growth mainly comes from old products, and new products are either failing in clinical trials or facing delays in data readings, then the valuation premium cannot be sustained. The company's stock price has seen some fluctuations by the end of the year.Recovery, almost recovering the annual decline, but still unable to摆脱中长期接力不够顺畅的Year-End Review。

PfizerThe golden age seems to have passed withCovidThe virus's retreat came to an abrupt halt, and the market value of this leading company has since2022Year1Early Month Rush3300After billions of dollars, it's time to move on.2025The market value at the end of the year has fallen to less than1500Billion US dollars.

This is due to the叠加 of pressures from three directions. The first is the policy environment.2025 In the year, with the new U.S. Secretary of Health andFDA After the person in charge took office,COVID-19 Vaccines are frequently pushed to the风口浪尖.Under the leadership of the new team, internal review materials mentioned individual suspected cases of child deaths related to vaccines. Regulatory agencies internally discussed whether it was necessary to upgrade the warning level or even consider a black box warning.9 An expert advisory committee also voted on whether to change the vaccine to prescription-only use in one month, but fortunately, the proposal was narrowly rejected. Although it did not reach the most extreme outcome, this series of actions was enough to force Pfizer to lower its prices with...COVID-19 Related Products2026 The revenue forecast for the year is also sufficient to raise more questions among investors about the company's business foundation in the post-pandemic era.

Second is the adjustment of business focus.2025 In the year, Pfizer chose to enter two popular tracks through large-scale external mergers and acquisitions and licensing: one is...13 USD billion upfront payment from3SBio IntroductionPD-(L)1/VEGF Bispecific antibodies hope to gain a share in the major indication of lung cancer; secondly, with100 Billion-dollar acquisitionMetsera, hoping to establish a foothold in the field of obesity treatment. These moves are not difficult to understand from a strategic perspective, but from a time dimension, they are more like bets on the next five to ten years rather than a safety net for performance in the next three years.

The third is the unavoidable fact of patent expiration.CFO Dave Denton Has already given a relatively clear statement in public:2026 The patent expiration pressure in the hundreds of millions of dollars range.2027 Roughly doubled in a year,2028 The annual loss will further increase. According to the company's disclosed estimates, revenue losses due to patent expirations alone will exceed...100 Billion US dollars.This means that within the visible time frame, even if obesity drugs or bispecific antibody projects make technological and clinical progress, it will be difficult to fully offset patentCliffis not something that can be accomplished within two or three years.

As for the same in 2025 YearMarket value decline occursSanofi and Merck, their issues are more about prolonged weakness.。Sanofi did not deliver enough new highlights this year, while Merck continued the trend of poor performance from the previous year.

Who in the world can rival the heroes? Let's fight again.2026

A horizontal comparison of these companies reveals 2025 The market this year is not so emotional, and it can even be said to be quite utilitarian. In an environment of increasing uncertainty, investors' patience is shrinking rapidly, while their criteria for judgment have become simpler and more straightforward.At the end of the year, looking back 2025 The stock price performance over the year provides a clearer view of the sources of differences between companies: some enterprises have demonstrated relatively clear progress in critical clinical readings, commercial execution, or strategic adjustments, leading to a more stable market outlook for their short- and medium-term prospects; others encountered R&D delays, management changes, or policy impacts during the same period, factors that have made investors exercise greater caution in terms of valuation recovery. The divergence in stock prices is not a sudden event but rather a reflection of each company's unique situation.2025 The natural manifestation of annual self-progress differences in the capital market.

Looking ahead,GLP-1Cardiovascular metabolic diseases, antibody-drug conjugates, as well as immunological and neurological disorders, among other fields, will all see advancements.2026 Critical trial milestones are approaching this year. These readings will continue to influence the market's assessment of each company’s mid-term growth trajectory. Meanwhile, from...2025 From the perspective of the stock price performance over the years, the logic of the capital market in dealing with uncertain factors has become clearer: whether enterprises can demonstrate stability in commercial execution, pipeline advancement, or strategic adjustment will directly reflect in the speed of valuation recovery.2025 The differences between large pharmaceutical companies over the year are not caused by a single event, but rather the result of the specific circumstances each company faced throughout the year in terms of R&D, management, and the policy environment gradually accumulating. As key trials are successively read out, these differences driven by actual progress may continue into the future.

Ref.

Simon, B. Vital Signs: Top-performing companies of 2025. FirstWord Pharma. 17. 12. 2025

Simon, B. Vital Signs: Worst-performing companies of 2025. FirstWord Pharma. 17. 12. 2025

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