On January 6, life sciences and healthcare information service provider Clarivate released the "2026 Drugs to Watch Prediction," marking the company's 14th annual forecast since 2013.

This year's report has selected11 drugs span multiple fields such as weight loss, rare diseases, and oncology, with the majority expected to become blockbuster drugs by 2031.

On this list,Lilly and Johnson & Johnson are the only two companies with more than one drug on the list. Among companies of Asian origin, two drugs from China OTSUKA Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and BeOne Medicines also made the cut., so today let's take a look atWho Will Dominate the Pharmaceutical Arena in 2026?

Lilly's Dual Stars Poised for Launch

Oral Convenience and Triple Stimulation: Can They Coexist?ReshapeWeight Loss Market?

In recent months, Eli Lilly and Company has been in the spotlight, first capturing the throne of the most valuable company in the biopharmaceutical industry by market capitalization,Later, inThe Clarivate list includesorforglipronAndretatrutideMaintain the leading position. Although these two drugs have not yet been approved,Ultimately, it may replace Eli Lilly's current"Cash Cow" Mounjaro (Mufengda)®, Tirzepatide for glycemic control) andZepbound (Tirzepatide for Weight Loss)。

Eli Lilly and Company isInR&Dof thisTwo New Drugs，orforglipronOnce dailyOral AdministrationTheGLP-1 Tablets,Relying on what was previously obtainedCNPV Priority Review Voucher, OriginallyExpected in March this yearFDA will announce the drugThe Approval Decision, but the latest information shows that it will be postponed toIn April, causing Eli Lilly's stock price to fall; andretatrutideIt is a triple injection administered once a week.ReceptorAgonist, according toClarivatePrediction, the drugIt is expected thatLaunch in 2028。Both drugs are targeted at obesity., diabetes and a series of other related indicationsAnd R&D。

DespiteGLP-1RAAlreadyCompletely Change Overweight/ Obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) clinical treatment patterns, and has shown potential therapeutic prospects in cardiovascular disease, renal complications and other fields, butHigh treatment costs and common gastrointestinal side effects lead to its discontinuation rate.Generally higher, patients generally have insufficient medication adherenceSome patients experienced issues such as weight rebound and poor blood glucose control.

Top JournalsJAMA 2024A study published pointed out that, among all those who have ever usedAmong adult patients using GLP-1 drugs, about half (54%) reported difficulty in affording the associated costs, with over a fifth (22%) finding it "very difficult." The study also showed that although most insured adult patients stated their insurance partially covered the medication costs, approximately 53% of those with insurance still found the financial burden to be heavy.

These all indicate that,The industry urgently needs improvements in drug delivery methods, patient tolerance, and treatment affordability.Aspectin continuous innovation breakthroughs. Precisely because of this,Orfrogrelin and RetatrutideTackle from two key directions: optimizing drug delivery routes and upgrading pharmacodynamic mechanisms.`, is expected to promote overweight`/Treatment models for obesity and type 2 diabetes are moving closer to meeting patients' actual needsDeep Transformation。

Orforglirin: Balancing Oral Convenience and Cost Advantages

AsThe First to EnterOrforglipron, an oral non-peptide small molecule GLP-1RA in Phase III clinical trials, is characterized by the ability to be taken at any time of the day without the restriction of fasting.Significantly superior in convenience and medication adherenceMust be taken strictly on an empty stomach.And at least after taking the medicationDo not eat, drink, or take any other medications within 30 minutes.TheOral Semaglutide(Novo Nordisk®, Novo Nordisk), and also met theIncluding"Needle Phobia"And"Long-term Maintenance Therapy"PatientIncluding broader needs。

ItsThe production process is relatively simplified and does not require refrigeration.Storage, with potential cost advantages。On January 6, UBS released an equity research report on Eli Lilly and Company titled "Eli Lilly: Leading the Obesity Treatment Wave Until 2030 – Orfo (orforglipron) Launch Forecast Exceeds Market Consensus, Initiate Coverage with a Buy Rating," providing a detailed breakdown.orfoglipronPrice Structure:

·According to the official list price,Orfoglipron is approximately $998/month.

·Cash payment end, the first month low dose is approximately$149, approximately $399 per month after a low dose stabilizes;

·Medicare costs approximately $245 per month.

·Commercial Insurance End$499/month;

·Approximate Monthly Price for Omnichannel Mix$323/month.

It is worth noting that, inAt the Bernstein 2nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference on September 25, 2025, Eli Lilly CFO Lucas Montarce mentionedAlready fororforglipronAbout Stockpiling$850 Million COGS Scale Inventory. This kind of"The 'build-first, approve-later' strategy differs from the traditional pharmaceutical model, demonstrating Lilly's confidence in the drug and helping to avoid repeating past mistakes.Mounjaro and ZepboundThe dilemma of supply shortages at the time of listing.InGLP-1, a field with high certainty and high demand ，"Capacity shortage" may be the biggest dilemma faced after entering the commercialization stage.

The global Phase III clinical data of Orforglipron showed that its efficacy is no less than, or even superior to, most of the marketed GLP-1RA products (including oral semaglutide), and its safety is basically consistent with the approved injectable formulations.

However,The halo of orforglipron is not without shadows; the side effects of small-molecule drugs are more complex and harder to predict than those of peptide drugs.Orforglipron caused significant gastrointestinal discomfort in patients in the high-dose group., such as nausea and vomiting,AboutTen percent of patients discontinued treatment due to these side effects, indicating that tolerability remains a clinical concern.

December 15, 2025Lilly announces that it has submitted toFDA Submits Orforglipron for Market Approval。January 20261On Day 0, the CDE website showed,Orforglipron Submitted for Marketing Approval in China，Showing that its global layout is accelerating.

Retatrutide: The Disruptive Potential of Triple-Target Agonists

The innovation of Retatrutide lies in that it is the first "triple-target" agonist, simultaneously acting on GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon receptors.

GIP and GLP-1 are "satiety signal groups," theyActing on brain regions that regulate appetite and influence the impulse to eat, canSignals the pancreas to release insulin after eating, while slowing down the digestion process, thereby helping to produce a feeling of fullness.

The Third Hormone: Glucagonis"Energy Mobilization Officer", canAccelerate Metabolism、Help the body break down fat cells，Obtain energy. The hormone also prompts the liver to produce new sugar, and this process is regulated byRegulation of GIP and GLP-1 activity to prevent sudden spikes in blood glucose levels.

Compared with the marketed single-target therapy semaglutide(GLP-1) and dual-target therapy tirzepatide (GIP/GLP-1),Retatrutide Has the Potential to Achieve Unprecedented Metabolic Regulation Effects, which not only reduces calorie intake but also increases energy expenditure by activating glucagon receptors,The weight loss effect may be superior toZepbound/Mounjaro®。

Retatrutide's weight loss data is extremely impressive:

1.Is the first to achieve weight loss in all subjectsDrugs ≥5%;

2.In treatmentAverage weight loss reached at 48 weeks“Surgical Weight Loss”(such as gastric bypass surgery) level, and approximately25% of patients achieved weight loss of ≥30%.

Not only that,retatrutideCan also significantly improve the pain level and physical function in obese patients with knee osteoarthritis., the patient'sThe WOMAC score decreased by an average of 75.8%.

In terms of side effects,retatrutideAndSimilar to GLP-1 drugs, gastrointestinal discomfort such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrheaThe most common.An increase in heart rate also occurred and was related to the dosage of the medication.

However, it is worth noting that,According toResults of the first Phase III clinical trial TRIUMPH-4, published on December 11, 2025,Subject Withdrawal RateHigher：12.2% in the 9 mg group and 18.2% in the 12 mg group (whereas the dropout rates in previous Phase III studies of tirzepatide and semaglutide were generally less than 10%).If the data of subjects who will withdraw are included in the statistics,The efficacy of retatrutide showed a significant decline.：The 9 mg group achieved a 20% weight loss in the full population, and the 12 mg group achieved a 23.7% weight loss.In response,Lilly's ExplanationQuite Unusual:The weight loss effect is overly significant.。

Currently,RetatrutideThere is7ItemIIIPhase clinical trial is expected to begin inTo be completed in 2026，Expected toApproved by the FDA in 2027。Its Market Expansion PathOrDrawing on Novo Nordisk fromThe Iterative Model of Wegovy's Upgrade to CagriSema，Make full use of tirzepatide inTime window before the patent expires in mid-2030，Guide patients to switch to the new generation of drugs。

Johnson & Johnson Dual-track Innovation:

Disrupting the Treatment Model for Bladder Cancer

ChallengeIL-23Drug Administration Pattern

Johnson & Johnson isOnlyAnother company with twoRankedPharmaceutical Company——Bladder Cancer Treatment DrugsInlexzo has been2025YearApproved by the FDA in September, and the immunotherapy drug icotrokinra has also entered the clinical stage.。

Inlexzo：For high-riskNew Bladder-Sparing Option for NMIBC Patients

AsThe world's first approved intravesical drug delivery system capable of continuously releasing chemotherapy drugs within the bladder for weeks.Inlexzo's core advantage lies in "bladder preservation.", This differentiated advantage has"The potential to 'change the treatment paradigm',"There are currently no direct competitors globally., suitable for treating patients who refuse or are not suitable for radical cystectomy, or those who are resistant to Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (Adult patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) who are unresponsive to BCG, accompanied by carcinoma in situ (CIS) with or without papillary tumors.

The therapy can be completed in minutes in an outpatient setting, with sustained release of chemotherapy drugs within the bladder.Gemcitabine，No general anesthesia is required, and there is no need for immediate monitoring after implantation, significantly simplifying the treatment process. It also reduces the frequency of patient visits, enhancing convenience.

In the United States, Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) remains the standard therapy for high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. However,GlobalBCG Supply Shortage Has Significantly Impacted Treatment Continuity for High-Risk Patients. In addition, if there is noInlexzo，CorrectPatients with BCG unresponsiveness usually require radical cystectomy.。Considering that such patients are mostly elderly people, they often find it difficult to accept such aggressive surgeries due to physical conditions or personal preferences,Facing significant challenges in clinical practice。

FDA Approves InlexzaoBased onSunRISe-1 (Clinical Trial Registration Number NCT04640623) Single-Arm Open-LabelIIData from phase b clinical studies support. The results show,82% Acceptance InlexzoPatients with BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer achieved complete remission, meaning no signs of cancer were found after treatment., and this high remission rate has significant durability, with a median duration of response ofAugust 25. In the trial72% of patients are over 65 years old,This drug is particularly suitable for the elderly patient population.。

But ifThe target population for Inlexzo has always been limited to BCG-unresponsive HR-NMIBC patients, a relatively small group, which is bound to constrain Inlexzo's sales potential. Therefore,Inlexzo needs to expand its indications to cover a broader patient population with bladder cancer, unlocking a larger target market.。

Icotrokinra：To Open with ConvenienceA New Chapter in IL-23 Targeted Therapy

Icotrokinra is expected to become the first orally administered targeted peptide drug to be marketed., and its mechanism of action is by blocking interleukin-23 (IL-23) receptor to suppress inflammatory responses — this receptor plays a key role in the inflammatory processes of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and ulcerative colitis.

IL-23 and IL-17 have been proven to be effective targets for treating autoimmune diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and psoriasis.Previously approved targetedAll IL-23 drugs without exception require injection for administration.。

Despite injectablesThe dosing cycle of IL-23 inhibitors has been extended from once a week to once every three months, butThe oral administration of icotrokinra is undoubtedly more convenient and can better reduce the treatment burden on patients.。

Johnson & JohnsonIcotrokinra (JNJ-2113) for the Treatment of Psoriasis Has Been InitiatedComprehensivePhase III Clinical Project, including five confirmatory studies. Currently, the projectHas achieved multiple positive outcomes, wherein:

KeyTopline Results from Phase III ICONIC-LEAD Study Show 74% of Patients Achieved Complete or Almost Complete Skin Clearance (IGA 0/1) at Week 24.

Positive Topline Results from Phase III Clinical Study ICONIC-TOTALd Show That Once-Daily Icotrokinra Achieved the Primary Endpoint of IGA 0/1 at Week 16, Superior to Placebo.

The other three items are head-to-head studies:

The control drugs in ICONIC-ADVANCE 1 and 2 are both Sotyktu (deucravacitinib, Bristol Myers Squibb), currently the most effective oral treatment for psoriasis.Compared with placebo (Day16 weeks) andDeucravacitinib(TheCompared with weeks 16 and 24, icotrokinra demonstrated superior skin clearance effects, with adverse events (AE) similar to the placebo group, and no new safety signals were identified. By week 24, the overall incidence of adverse events was lower than that of secukinumab.

The estimated completion time for the primary endpoint of the ICONIC-ASCEND study is March 2026.This study is a pioneering effort in the field of psoriasis, involving oral medications and injections.Biological ProductsHead-to-head trials of agents,icotrokinra ChallengeJohnson & JohnsonIn-houseProductStelara® (Ustekinumab).Once successful,Icotrokinra's convenient administration method will reshape the treatment landscape and transform patient choices.

July 2025,Johnson & JohnsonFDA Submits New Drug Application for Ictrokinra，November,The drug's marketing application in China has also been accepted and included in the priority review.。

Innovation of the Two Asian Giants:

Revolutionary Targeted Therapy Leads the Transformation in Kidney Disease and Blood Cancer Treatment

We also saw two R&D entities located in Asia in the list:China OTSUKA Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and BeOne Medicines.

Voyxact: A Breakthrough in Causal Treatment for IgA Nephropathy

Voyxact（sibeprenlimab）YesFirst CreationAPRIL Selective Inhibitor (Inducible Proliferation Ligand Inhibitor)。The Clarivate team predicted,ThisMedicineIs expected to become a treatment"High-Impact Disease-Modifying Drugs" for IgA Nephropathy (also known as Berger's Disease) Bring Breakthrough Progress in Treatment。

For a long time,Treatment options for IgA nephropathy are limited, with primary methods focusing on controlling blood pressure and proteinuria, making it difficult to target its core pathogenic mechanisms. The current academic consensus generally recognizes that the pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy involves multiple stages: the formation of abnormally glycosylated IgA1;

Antibodies against abnormal glycosylation;

Immune complexes form and deposit in the kidneys;

Complement activation in the kidney leads to tissue damage.

©2012 International Society of Nephrology

Among them,APRIL Plays a Key Role, by promoting pathogenicThe production of Gd-IgA1,Becoming an important driving factor in the onset and continuous progression of diseases。VoyxactCompared with the complement inhibitors already on the marketFabhalta (Novartis), glucocorticoid drug Nefecon (YunDing New Glory/Calliditas), and endothelin receptor antagonists Vanrafia (Novartis) and Filspari (BMS) are different; itBy selectively binding and inhibitingAPRIL, reducing IgA, APRIL, and Gd-IgA1 levels, achieves precise intervention in the disease's cause.。

Results from the VISIONARY Phase II clinical study show extraordinary efficacy of voyxact.: TheAt 9 months, the 24-hour urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) decreased by 51.2% compared to the placebo group. Among the IgA nephropathy clinical trials conducted to date,Voyxact Demonstrates Best-in-Class Efficacy Characteristics in Reducing Urinary Protein。

IfThe successful clinical application of Voyxact is expected to expand the overall market size for IgA nephropathy treatment, rather than merely reshaping the existing market landscape.This is not only due to itsCan provide more patients with opportunities for early intervention, more crucially, the drug's mechanism of action targeting the cause of the disease,Is expected to promoteA Fundamental Shift in the Treatment Strategy for IgA Nephropathy——From the past, when traditional supportive treatment was the main focus,Transition to a New Model of Combined Therapy Integrating Symptomatic and Causal Treatments. FromThe release and update of the 2025 edition of the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines and the Chinese IgA Nephropathy Clinical Practice Guidelines show that immune intervention strategies targeting key pathogenic aspects of the disease are gaining increasing attention, with the timing of intervention also becoming earlier.

November 25, 2025FDAAccelerated ApprovalVoyxact is used to reduce proteinuria levels in adult patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) who are at risk of disease progression.。It is reported that,The drug has also been submitted for marketing application in China and is expected toApproved for marketing in 2026。

However,Targeted therapy drugs are generally priced higher,VOYXACT is no exception: Subcutaneous injection required throughout the year13 times, with a total treatment cost of approximately $390,000, which is unaffordable for the vast majority of ordinary patients. At the same time, attention should also be paid to the long-term efficacy data of Voyxact in maintaining the stability of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).Is there an increased potential risk of infection?TheQuestion。

BGB-16673: Protein Degrader Leads the Next Generation of BTK-Targeted Therapy

Clarivate specifically mentioned two protein degrader anticancer drugs, includingBeOne MedicinesBGB-16673. ThisPotential First-in-Class Oral TherapyMay Become"Breakthrough Therapy Changing the Treatment Paradigm for B-cell Malignancies"

Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) is a non-receptor kinase in the B-cell receptor (BCR) signaling pathway and is crucial for the survival of B cells. Therefore, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other B-cell malignancies are sensitive to BTK inhibition, butThird GenerationBTK Inhibitors All Face the Challenge of Drug Resistance。

The first generation (Ibrutinib) and the second generation (Acalabrutinib, Zanubrutinib, Orelabrutinib, Tirabrutinib)All BTK inhibitors are covalent inhibitors. After treatment with these drugs, BTK kinase can develop resistance due to the C481S point mutation. Third-generation drugs (such as pirtobrutinib) are non-covalent inhibitors that can be used in patients who have developed resistance after prior BTK inhibitor treatment, but new resistance mutations have also been observed. Therefore,The market urgently needs new molecular drugs that can address new drug-resistant mutations.。

Targeted Protein Degraders (PROTACs) Strategy Becomes the Choice for Next-Generation BTK Drug Development, and currently, multiple companies are in the process of development.BeOne MedicinesBGB-16673 is the most advanced。

On January 13, 2026, at the JPM conference, John V. Oyler (Ou Lei Qiang), co-founder, chairman, and CEO of BeOne Medicines, stated,For patients who have undergone multiple lines of treatmentConducted for CLL patientsIResults from the clinical trial phase showed,At the median follow-upAt 18 months, the patientObjectiveRemission Rate (ORR) reached86%, 12-month progression-free survivalPeriod(PFS) For79%. The company is expected toKey data for BGB-16673 in relapsed/refractory CLL expected in 2026IIResults of the trial period.

In May 2025, BeOne Medicines registered a global Phase III clinical trial, CaDAnCE-304,Head-to-Head ComparisonEfficacy of BGB-16673 versus Jiepalin® (Pirtobrutinib, Eli Lilly) in patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) CLL/SLL, with the anticipated primary endpoint and study completion date beingThe year 2028.This data is forThe clinical promotion and application of BGB-16673 will be crucial., which determines its market penetration potential, and we look forward to BeOne Medicines releasing more information in the future.

Currently, the competition in the pharmaceuticals industry is becoming increasingly fierce. If enterprises want to ensure long-term success amidst changes, they must keenly perceive and adapt to industrial transformation trends, building deep-level differentiated competitiveness.——Either seizing the opportunity through speed or carving out a unique path via innovation. Whether it’s the exploration of cutting-edge targets, the revolution in drug delivery methods, the optimization of production costs, or the efficiency of clinical development, all will become critical factors determining the future heights of pharmaceutical companies. This list not only outlines the drug trends worth watching in 2026 but also reveals a clear industry consensus:The future will always belong to those brave enough to face challenges head-on and continuously embrace innovation.。

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