Global Pharma Giants Unveil 2025 Performance: Strong Growth Amid Patent Cliff Pressures and GLP-1 Market Reshuffle

As multinational pharmaceutical companies successively disclose their 2025 performance reports, a new round of competitive landscape in the global pharmaceutical industry is gradually becoming clear.

In the performance rankings, Johnson & Johnson secured the top spot with a global total revenue of $94.193 billion, with its two core business segments, innovative pharmaceuticals and medical technology, generating revenues of $60.401 billion (+6%) and $33.792 billion (+6.1%), respectively. Eli Lilly achieved annual revenue of $65.179 billion with a high growth rate of 44%, becoming the fastest-growing leading pharmaceutical company. In addition, leading companies such as Sanofi, Novartis, AstraZeneca, and AbbVie all maintained upward revenue trends, collectively supporting the steady development of the global pharmaceutical industry.

Beneath the halo of performance growth, multiple multinational pharmaceutical companies are facing increasingly urgent "patent cliff" pressures. The industry is also accelerating strategic adjustments, with a series of pipeline optimizations, organizational streamlining, and personnel adjustments continuously advancing. Relevant strategic plans have now fully entered the implementation and execution phase.

Among the appointments, Sanofi's board has named Belén Garijo as the new CEO, who will officially assume her duties following the group’s Annual General Meeting on April 29, 2026. It is reported that after taking office, Belén Garijo will drive the execution of the company’s strategy in a more disciplined manner, with the primary task of enhancing the productivity, governance, and innovation capabilities of the R&D department.

In addition, Merck also announced the adjustment of its pharmaceutical business organizational structure, redividing the human health business into two major sectors: Oncology and Specialty, Pharma & Infectious Diseases, enabling Merck to maintain its leadership in the field of cancer treatment while focusing on launching an increasingly wide and diversified range of new products. To support the new human health business structure, Jannie Oosthuizen has been appointed as Executive Vice President and President of Oncology Business and Merck International.

Heading Towards 2026, the Divergent Growth Trend in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry May Continue to Expand.Guoxin SecuritiesThe research report shows that among the 16 companies surveyed, only Eli Lilly provided double-digit revenue growth guidance for 2026; Novo Nordisk's revenue is expected to decline by -13% to -5% due to market competition and pricing factors; BMS (Bristol-Myers Squibb) is projected to experience low- to mid-single-digit revenue declines as several key products face the impact of patent expiration (LoE); revenue growth guidance for the other 13 pharmaceutical companies generally falls within the single-digit growth range.

"Who Will Be Crowned the 'King of Medicine'?"

The competition for the title of the world's "best-selling drug" has always been the focus of the pharmaceutical industry, and this landscape will undergo changes in 2025.

In 2024, Merck's pembrolizumab (English trade name: Keytruda; Chinese trade name: Keruida; commonly known as "K drug") secured the global "best-selling drug" title for the second time with sales reaching $29.482 billion. In 2025, the K drug achieved sales of $316.80 billion, growing by 7% year-on-year. Although maintaining steady growth, it eventually relinquished the "best-selling drug" title under the impact of GLP-1 class drugs.

In 2025, Eli Lilly's major product tirzepatide gained strong momentum, successfully securing the title of the world's "best-selling drug." Financial reports revealed that tirzepatide (brand names include the diabetes version Mounjaro and the weight-loss version Zepbound) contributed $36.5 billion in revenue for the year. Among this, Mounjaro’s annual sales reached $22.965 billion, a year-over-year increase of 99%, while Zepbound’s annual revenue amounted to $13.542 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 175%.

Novo Nordisk's semaglutide followed closely. Its 2025 financial report shows that semaglutide, as the "star product," achieved $36.1 billion in sales, with a year-over-year increase of over 10%. Among this, the injectable semaglutide for blood sugar control, Ozempic (marketed in China as NovoTai), generated 127.089 billion Danish kroner (approximately $20.105 billion) in sales, while the weight management version, Wegovy (marketed in China as NovoYing), reached 79.106 billion Danish kroner (approximately $12.515 billion). The oral tablet version for blood sugar control, Rybelsus (marketed in China as NovoXin), brought in 22.093 billion Danish kroner (approximately $3.495 billion).

A pharmaceutical industry analyst from a brokerage firm told the 21st Century Economic Report that the current market for GLP-1-based weight loss and diabetes drugs has formed a duopoly dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with market competition continuing to intensify. On one hand, GLP-1 drugs have demonstrated significant efficacy in blood sugar reduction and weight management, leading to rapid market expansion. As more pharmaceutical companies enter this field, competition is becoming increasingly fierce. On the other hand, the core patent for semaglutide will expire in March 2026, allowing Chinese generic drug manufacturers to enter the market on a large scale, posing a risk of market share compression for the original drug developers.

At present, the GLP-1 track has entered a new competitive stage of "contending for dominance among many players." According to statistics from the医药魔方Nextpharma database, there are 88 small-molecule GLP-1 drugs currently under research and development globally, six of which have already entered Phase III clinical trials, including Eli Lilly's orforglipron.Hengrui MedicineSuch as HRS-7535. At present, China's pharmaceutical enterprises are accelerating the layout of GLP-1 generic drugs and improved new drugs, and the competition in the global GLP-1 market will enter a more diversified new stage.

In addition, Pfizer recently announced the results of the Phase IIb VESPER-3 study for weight loss with its ultra-long-acting GLP-1R agonist PF'3944 (MET-097i). PF'3944 is a first-in-class, fully biased, ultra-long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) developed by Metsera (which has been acquired by Pfizer), with the potential for once-monthly dosing.

It is generally believed in the industry that the competition in the GLP-1 track will comprehensively unfold across multiple dimensions, including efficacy improvement, convenience of administration, price accessibility, and expansion of indications. Facing increasingly fierce competition, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are also continuously deepening their own moats to consolidate their market advantages.

How is the market performance in China?

As one of the most promising pharmaceutical markets globally, China's performance has become a crucial pillar for multinational pharmaceutical companies' global results.

From the disclosed financial report data, in 2025, AstraZeneca continues to top the list of multinational pharmaceutical companies in China. During the reporting period, AstraZeneca achieved a total revenue of $58.739 billion, an increase of 8% year-on-year. As the second largest market globally for AstraZeneca, China contributed $6.654 billion in revenue in 2025, growing by 4% year-on-year and accounting for 11% of its global total revenue.

Behind the 4% growth rate lies AstraZeneca's continuous optimization of its business structure in China and the deepening of its strategic layout. Public information shows that since 2023, AstraZeneca has reached 15 licensing collaborations with 14 Chinese domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies, covering cutting-edge fields such as ADCs and cell therapies. AstraZeneca’s CICC Healthcare Industry Fund has invested in 28 Chinese innovative enterprises, managing a fund of $5.5 billion. Among them, 10 invested companies have entered into 17 global licensing collaborations with multinational pharmaceutical companies, with a total value exceeding $13.7 billion.

On October 25, 2025, AstraZeneca's Global R&D Beijing Strategic Center was officially launched. This is the second global strategic R&D center established by AstraZeneca in China, further strengthening its commitment.China MedicineR&D Innovation Ecosystem. On January 29, 2026, AstraZeneca announced that it would invest more than 100 billion yuan (approximately 15 billion US dollars) in China by 2030 to expand its pharmaceutical production and R&D layout, helping China become a core pivot for its global innovation and manufacturing.

In terms of growth rate performance, the top three multinational pharmaceutical companies in China in 2025 are Eli Lilly, Roche, and Novartis. Among them, Roche is the only multinational pharmaceutical company, apart from Eli Lilly, to maintain double-digit growth in the Chinese market.

According to Roche's financial report, the growth of its performance in China is mainly attributed to the strong performance of three core products, including the successful inclusion of Phesgo (Pertuzumab/Trastuzumab) in the medical insurance directory; robust sales of Xofluza (Baloxavir Marboxil) during the flu season; and steady growth of Vabysmo (Faricimab) and Polivy (Polatuzumab Vedotin).

As the third fastest-growing multinational pharmaceutical company in China in 2025, Novartis achieved steady growth through the launch of innovative drugs and localized strategies. Among these, Pluvicto (Pivito) was approved in November 2025 in China for two advanced prostate cancer indications simultaneously, becoming the first radioligand therapy to be launched in the country.

While innovative drugs are being implemented, Novartis is also actively promoting its localized production layout in China. In December 2025, Novartis officially signed a commercial cooperation agreement for Pluvicto with Atomic High-Tech. The two parties will provide customized Pluvicto supply and solutions to medical institutions and patients to benefit more patients. Additionally, Novartis has announced the establishment of a radiopharmaceutical production base in China to support the long-term supply of radiopharmaceuticals like Pluvicto in the Chinese market.

Notably, multiple multinational pharmaceutical companies continue to strengthen the strategic position of their China operations. For instance, in December 2025, Boehringer Ingelheim announced that Dr. Ioannis Sapountzis would assume the role of Head of Greater China. To fully unlock China's potential, Boehringer Ingelheim will optimize its global regional market structure by separating the Greater China region from the Emerging Markets division under the Human Pharma Business Unit, allowing it to report directly to the head of Global Regional Markets for the Human Pharma Business Unit.

In the industry's view, as China's pharmaceutical market continues to open up and undergo innovation upgrades, competition among multinational pharmaceutical companies in China will further focus on innovation capabilities, localized strategies, and collaborative empowerment. The advantages of leading enterprises will become more prominent, while companies facing performance pressures can only stabilize their position in the increasingly competitive Chinese market by accelerating strategic adjustments and strengthening the competitiveness of core products.

Continuously Seeking New Growth Poles

BoCom International's analysis points out that several multinational pharmaceutical companies will face the risk exposure brought by patent expiration, with some companies facing a risk exposure as high as 70%. According to statistics from the Royal Bank of Canada, large pharmaceutical companies will lose exclusive rights to $400 billion of their current revenue over the next decade. Approximately $180 billion of the free cash flow of these large pharmaceutical companies may be used to mitigate the decline in sales.

Facing the increasingly imminent "patent cliff" pressure, finding new growth poles has become a common challenge for global multinational pharmaceutical companies.

Novartis, while announcing its 2025 performance, pointed out that the company is facing the largest wave of patent expirations in its history. Sales of just three products – Entresto, Revolade, and Tasigna – in the U.S. market will decrease by $4 billion.

To address the risk of patent expiration and tap into new growth drivers, multinational pharmaceutical companies have increasingly intensified their business development (BD) efforts in recent years. Mergers and acquisitions, as well as collaborative development, have become common industry practices to integrate high-quality innovative assets.

Research reports from Guoxin Securities show that in 2025, the transactions of innovative drug assets by multinational pharmaceutical companies reached a new high. The total number of innovative drug transaction cases for the year reached 142, of which mergers/acquisitions and cooperative developments were 36 and 106 respectively, both reaching new highs since 2015. The total transaction amount reached 264.5 billion US dollars, of which mergers/acquisitions and cooperative developments were 106 billion US dollars and 158.4 billion US dollars respectively. Both the total transaction amount and the cooperative development amount reached new highs since 2015, with the merger/acquisition amount ranking second only to those in 2019 and 2023.

This trend is likely to continue into 2026. Analysts at JPMorgan predicted at the end of 2025 that M&A activity would continue to heat up in 2026 (especially after the elimination of uncertainties related to several key policies), with transactions focusing on late-stage, low-risk assets and more medium-sized deals (approximately between US$5 billion and US$15 billion).

In the first quarter of 2026, the BD transactions of multinational pharmaceutical companies have shown a trend of intensive implementation. On February 8, Innovent Biologics announced a strategic cooperation with Eli Lilly and Company to jointly promote the global development of innovative drugs in the field of oncology and immunology; the next day, Orna Therapeutics announced a definitive acquisition agreement with Eli Lilly, under which Eli Lilly will fully acquire Orna to strengthen its layout in the fields of cell therapy and gene medicine.

By the end of the same month, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced an acquisition agreement with 35Pharma to acquire all its shares for $950 million in cash. According to available information, 35Pharma’s core pipeline project at present is HS235. The drug targets the activin receptor signaling pathway, a clinically validated therapeutic target for PAH.

On March 4, China Biologic Products announced that its subsidiary, Zhengda Tianqing, had entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Sanofi for the global development, manufacturing, and commercialization of the JAK/ROCK inhibitor Rovatirelin. According to the agreement, China Biologic Products’ subsidiary Zhengda Tianqing granted Sanofi the exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Rovatirelin worldwide.

"Currently, the demand from multinational pharmaceutical companies for high-quality innovative assets continues to rise, providing an important path for China’s biotech enterprises to materialize their pipelines and realize value. This trend is also driving a wave of BD (Business Development) and M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) in the global biopharmaceutical field." The aforementioned securities analyst emphasized that beneath the热潮 lie hidden differentiations. To achieve sustainable development, innovative drug companies still need to carefully focus on pipeline layout, R&D capabilities, and clinical progress, avoiding blindly following trends.

Nowadays, the competitive landscape of the global pharmaceutical industry is accelerating its reconstruction, and the strategic value of the Chinese market is becoming increasingly prominent. On the one hand, multinational pharmaceutical companies continue to increase their investment in China; on the other hand, the innovation strength of Chinese pharmaceutical companies is constantly improving, with high-quality innovative assets gaining growing global recognition, making them an indispensable force in the global pharmaceutical innovation ecosystem. This will not only drive the high-quality development of China's pharmaceutical industry but also inject new vitality into the sustained growth of the global pharmaceutical sector.

(Author: Han Liming Editor: Ji Yuanyuan, Luo Yifan)