Can mRNA Vaccines Still Capture a Share in China's Billion-Dollar Market After Missing the Initial Wave?

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines have become the undisputed centerpiece.

In vaccine development, there are clear differences in the technological approaches chosen domestically and internationally. In China, the focus has been on relatively traditional inactivated virus vaccines and recombinant protein vaccines, with Sinovac Biotech, Sinopharm (Beijing Institute of Biological Products), and Zhifei Biological Products being the main players; whereas abroad, mRNA vaccines have dominated, primarily represented by the Pfizer/BioNTech collaboration and Moderna's products. Both domestic and international markets have adenovirus-based vaccines that received emergency use authorization, but their sales volumes show a significant gap compared to other products.

Unlike their blockbuster counterparts abroad, mRNA vaccines in China, which once held a leading position, remain in the clinical trial stage. Over the past six months, they have watched as other vaccine products carved up the multi-billion-dollar market.

With mRNA vaccines seemingly having lost their first-mover advantage entirely, is there still an opportunity for them to secure a foothold in the Chinese market? Guided by this question, we begin to re-examine the landscape of the COVID-19 vaccine market.

Following the release of financial reports for the first half of 2020, sales figures for COVID-19 vaccines from major pharmaceutical companies sparked significant market interest. Although this information may already be widely available through various channels, we provide a brief recap here.

Sinovac Biotech:No specific data was disclosed, but based on the financial report of China National Biotec Group (CNBG), which stated that “its associates and joint ventures collectively contributed approximately RMB 7.585 billion in profits to the group,” it can be inferred that Sinovac Life Sciences relied on COVID-19 vaccines in the first half of 2021Profits reached RMB 50 billion. If further calculated based on a 50% net profit margin, Sinovac Biotech's COVID-19 vaccine,It may achieve annual revenue in the hundreds of billions within just six months.。

Zhifei Biological:Based on the revenue data of Zhifei Longcom, a subsidiary of Zhifei Biological Products, Zhifei Biological Products' revenue from COVID-19 vaccines is approximatelyMore than 5 billion.

CanSino Biologics:Achieved in the First Half of 2021Revenue of RMB 2.061 billion, primarily from COVID-19 vaccines.

Sinopharm CNBG (Beijing Institute of Biological Products):Sinopharm CNBG has likewise not disclosed specific information, but we can make a rough estimate based on other available data. On July 14, 2021, the National Health Commission reported that as of July 13, the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered across China had exceeded 1.4 billion. Based on the procurement price of RMB 200 per dose disclosed at the end of 2020, the total market value of domestic COVID-19 vaccines in the first half of 2021 could have reached RMB 280 billion. The combined revenues of Sinovac, Zhifei, and CanSino accounted for less than 50% of the total market size.Sinopharm CNBG is likely the enterprise with the highest shipment volume and revenue in China.

Pfizer/BioNTech:According to Pfizer's financial report disclosures, the COVID-19 vaccine product developed through their partnership in the first half of 2021Cumulative sales reached $11.3 billion.

Moderna：According to Moderna’s financial report, it sold a total of 302 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine in the first half of 2021, with sales reaching$5.93 billion.

AstraZeneca:According to AstraZeneca's financial report, its COVID-19 vaccine sales reached in the first half of 2021$1.136 billion.

Johnson & Johnson:According to Johnson & Johnson's financial report, its COVID-19 vaccine sales in the first half of 2021 reached$264 million.

Driven by China’s unwavering commitment to pandemic control, the domestic COVID-19 vaccine market has far surpassed its overseas counterparts. On August 28, 2021, the National Health Commission disclosed that more than 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered in China, with over 1 billion people vaccinated. Excluding certain elderly individuals and infants, China is moving ever closer to achieving universal vaccination coverage.

As COVID-19 vaccination campaigns gained strong momentum in China, international efforts were equally robust. Data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on August 2, 2021, showed that 70% of the adult population in the United States had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. On September 1, 2021, the European Union also announced that it had achieved its target of fully vaccinating 70% of its adult population against COVID-19.

From the current vaccination landscape, mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in China and developed countries have been largely completed. In this context, companies that have not yet brought their products to market appear to be in an awkward position, including domestic mRNA vaccine manufacturers.

In the early stages of the pandemic, mRNA-based vaccines were also strong contenders in China’s domestic COVID-19 vaccine market. Following the outbreak, numerous Chinese COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers responded swiftly and initiated rapid development efforts. Notably, Swabio immediately commenced related work upon receiving the SARS-CoV-2 antigen from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Meanwhile, domestic pharmaceutical companies have also actively introduced leading foreign products. In March 2020, Fosun Pharma announced a partnership with BioNTech, securing the commercialization rights for its COVID-19 vaccine in China.

During the clinical stage, mRNA vaccines have also made steady progress. In June 2020, Abogen Biosciences’ COVID-19 vaccine, ARCoV, received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) to initiate Phase I clinical trials, just three months after the first domestically developed COVID-19 vaccine entered clinical studies in China.

Although not lagging in taking the initiative, to date, among mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, only the product developed through the partnership between Fosun Pharma and BioNTech has received authorization for use in the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions, with no products yet approved in mainland China.

From a purely technical perspective, mRNA vaccines offer distinct advantages in rapid development, with the speed benefit being particularly evident in product purification. Whether for inactivated virus vaccines, recombinant protein vaccines, or adenovirus vaccines, production requires cell culture and purification processes, necessitating a complete process development workflow to ensure the safety and efficacy of the final product. In contrast, mRNA vaccine production is conducted entirely in vitro; the synthesized mRNA only requires appropriate modifications and encapsulation into delivery vectors to complete the entire manufacturing process. The overall production process is transparent, controllable, and minimally affected by external factors. Furthermore, the R&D workflow exhibits a high degree of reusability: the identified viral sequence is directly used for mRNA sequence design, while non-viral vector delivery strategies are selected based on the company’s prior R&D experience.

Therefore, mRNA vaccines have a prominent advantage in R&D speed. The overseas mRNA vaccine industry has indeed capitalized on the opportunities brought by the pandemic. In China, however, the lag in clinical progress has triggered a series of chain reactions.

First, the clinical development of products from several other manufacturers progressed more rapidly than that of mRNA vaccines. After achieving favorable Phase II clinical trial results, they were quickly launched into the market. Although the domestic epidemic had been fully contained at that time, the government still chose to accelerate vaccination efforts in consideration of long-term safety and the prompt resumption of international exchanges. Consequently, the first wave of marketed vaccines rapidly captured a substantial market share, which corresponds to the half-year data we previously observed.

As for mRNA vaccines, after missing the first wave of opportunities,On the one hand, the market opportunity for the first wave of vaccinations has been largely lost; on the other hand, the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) is no longer in a situation where there were no available drugs during the initial product approvals, and thus naturally imposes higher requirements on product efficacy, safety, and the stability of clinical data.This holds true both in China and abroad. Therefore, we observed that ARCoV, developed through the collaboration between Walvax Biotechnology and Abogen Biosciences, initiated Phase III clinical trials domestically and internationally in June–July 2021, rather than rapidly pursuing product launch following Phase I/II trials.

From this perspective, mRNA vaccines, which have lagged behind in clinical progress, appear to have completely lost their first-mover advantage and are no longer competitive either domestically or internationally. But is this really the case?

From our perspective, domestically produced mRNA vaccines still have room for future development in at least three areas.

The protective efficacy of many vaccines gradually wanes over time following inoculation. Current evidence suggests that COVID-19 vaccines are likely no exception. Recently, both domestic inactivated vaccines and foreign mRNA vaccines have progressively prioritized the administration of booster doses.

As people come to accept the reality of SARS-CoV-2 becoming endemic, COVID-19 vaccines may become similar to influenza vaccines, requiring periodic administration and thereby creating a long-term, continuous, and stable market. As the timeline extends, products that have not yet received approval will have more opportunities. In particular, mRNA vaccines demonstrate a clear advantage in efficacy; the two mRNA vaccines already on the market, from Moderna and BioNTech, both show efficacy rates of approximately 95%, significantly higher than those of other technological platforms. This difference in efficacy may ultimately determine the landscape of the long-term market.

Over the past year, SARS-CoV-2 has undergone successive mutations, from the Alpha variant first identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 to the currently prominent Delta variant, with new variants continuously emerging and posing novel threats. Although studies indicate that inactivated vaccines still offer protection against the Delta variant, the decline in overall protective efficacy is an undeniable fact.

If we are to accept that SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic, much like the influenza virus, we must also accept that it will continue to mutate, similar to flu viruses. In the face of such a highly mutable virus, the high efficiency of mRNA vaccine development becomes particularly evident. In fact, some mRNA vaccine manufacturers have already begun developing new products targeting variant strains. For instance, Swemab has stated at events that it has proactively laid out a pipeline of iterative COVID-19 vaccines against several SARS-CoV-2 variants and has been submitting clinical trial applications on a rolling basis.

Therefore, domestically produced mRNA vaccines may gain ground with variant-specific vaccines.

Although vaccination campaigns have been largely completed in both the domestic market and developed countries, significant opportunities remain in the broader developing world. After meeting domestic demand, Chinese COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers have begun extending their reach to other developing nations. This vast market, with its enormous population, rivals even China’s own market in scale—particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East—and still awaits further development.

During the pandemic, the mRNA industry surged to prominence almost overnight. Alongside this rise, various non-viral vector delivery technologies also gained traction. Subtle differences in these delivery technologies are particularly pronounced within the mRNA sector, with each company possessing its own proprietary delivery know-how and establishing distinct patent barriers. In the absence of specific clinical data, it is difficult to assess the relative technical merits of different companies. To understand the precise distinctions among various non-viral vector delivery technologies, one must likely rely on the companies’ own presentations.

Therefore, VCBeat, in collaboration with Shengshan Capital, Fenglin Group, and the Kasi Club, presents the 36th session of its offline salon series, “Think & Share.” Distinguished industry leaders will delve into the core of non-viral vector delivery technologies, exploring industry development and analyzing key technologies. Scan the QR code below to register immediately.