The annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPMCongress) has once again concluded as scheduled, which may be the most [notable] in ChinaBiotechA Session of High ExpectationsJPMConference.
For a long time,JPMis regarded as the bellwether for the development of the global pharmaceutical industry throughout the year. FollowingAstraZeneca18Acquisition for Hundreds of Millions of US DollarsCincor、IpsenPharmaceuticals9.5$100 million acquisitionAlbireoRestart2023The cross-border M&A boom in [year], with intensiveBDTransaction Ignition2024Following the fervor of annual asset transactions, people are eager to take a closer lookJPMDiscover the Blockbuster Deals During the Conference2025the mainstream pace of the global pharmaceutical market in 2026.
AnnuallyJPMThe highlights of the conference, in addition to the latest updates and annual strategies announced by the heads of major pharmaceutical companies, often include the networking sessions during the warm-up phase, which tend to spark more dynamic interactions. This yearJPMAt the industry forum held before the official opening of the conference, it was packed with domestic attendees who had traveled from afar.Biotech. “Last year, we expected the number of attendees to be600people, with the final number of registrants being800People, significantly exceeding expectations. Therefore, this year directly according to1000The scale of human organization, resulting in1200“We had so many registrants that the venue was packed to capacity, with crowds spilling out into the corridors.” an organizer of a Chinese-language forum told VCBeat.
Unlike previous years, which focused primarily on passive observation and showcasing outcomes, this year in ChinaBiotechMost attendees come with a specific mission: to identify transactional opportunities at the conference.
1. USD-denominated funds extend an olive branch
“This year, a very obvious change is that everyone is discussingNewCopossibility.” said a practitioner, “and unlike in China, inJPMAt the conference, it was evident thatBiotech“Mutual engagement with U.S. dollar funds, as they also actively embrace Chinese assets.”
In China's pharmaceutical industry,NewCoTransaction activity remained robust throughout nearly the entire year. It is widely believed that,2025The year will beNewCoA Surge Year for Transactions.2025At the start of the year, enthusiasm in the pharmaceutical sector was once againNewCoDeal ignition. Just asJPMPrior to the Opening of the Conference1Month10Recently, Keymed Biosciences, Harbour BioMed, and Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical have successively announcedNewCoDeal: Kicking Off the New Year with a Bang.
2025Year1Month10On [date], Keymed Biosciences announced that, regarding a potential best-in-class targetedCD38Humanized Monoclonal AntibodyCM313withTimberlyne TherapeuticsAchievedNewCoTransaction. In accordance with the agreement between both parties,ConnoMed Grants Timberlyne Development, manufacturing, and commercialization globally (excluding mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan)CM313 Exclusive Rights, and thereby obtain3000Down Payment in Ten Thousand US Dollars and Recent Payments、Maximum3.375$100 million in additional payments, and royalties.
TimberlyneFounded in2024Year6Month,NewCoUpon completion of the transaction,TimberlyneObtain1.8hundreds of millions of dollarsARound of Financing, Keymed Biosciences Timberlyne 25.79%'s equity and become the company's largest shareholder, Keymed BiosciencesChairman and CEO Chen Bo will joinTimberlyneBoard of Directors, CFO Zhang YanrongthenServe asTimberlyneBoard Observer.
It is worth noting that this is alreadyKeymed Biosciences’ Third TimeNewCoTransaction.2024Year7In [Month], ConnoMed Biopharma will transfer its2A Novel Dual-Antibody DrugCM512、CM536Global rights excluding the Greater China region are licensed toBelenos Biosciences, and thus obtained1500$10,000 advance payment,1.7Yibridge Hong Kong, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keymed Biosciences, has obtained milestone payments amounting to hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars, as well as sales royalties at specified percentages.BelenosApprox.30.01%equity.
4months later, ConnoMed Biopharma willBCMA/CD3Dual Antiplatelet TherapyCM336Global rights excluding the Greater China region are licensed toPlatina Medicines, and charge1600down payment and recent payments in ten thousand US dollars, with a maximum thereafter6.1 hundred million U.S. dollars in additional payments, andPlatina MedicinesA minority equity stake in the parent company.
Equally pragmatic1Month10Day,Harbour BioMed and Kelun-Biotech Announce, withWindward BioTargetedTSLPMonoclonal AntibodyHBM9378/SKB378AchievementNewCoDeal. Harbour BioMed and Kelun-Biotech are entitled to receive up to9.7$100 million in upfront and milestone payments, with the upfront payment and near-term milestones being4500$10,000, including cash payments andWindward BioParent Company Equity.
This is also the second time for Harbour BioMed.NewCoTransaction. As early as2019In [Year], Harbour BioMed jointly established with Boston Children's HospitalHBM Alpha Therapeutics, and in2023Completed seed round financing in [Year].For those holding high-quality assetsBiotechIn terms of, throughNewCoAttracting capital is becoming a mature strategy.“Participated in this year'sJPMin ChinaBiotech“It is significantly higher than in the past, and they are all actively seeking trading opportunities,” said a practitioner. “If we talk about those who are slightly better off in China...”Biotech“It might be a bit of an exaggeration to say that we’ve come through it all, but that’s roughly the case.”
More importantly, in this year'sJPMDuring the warm-up event, the shift in attitude of US dollar funds toward Chinese assets was also evident. On one hand, according to the aforementioned forum organizers, US dollar funds participated in domesticBiotechForum participation was highly active, and the process of securing guest speakers proceeded more smoothly than in the past. On the other hand, at these forums, many guests from USD-denominated funds expressed their hope that domesticBiotechWe have full confidence in the U.S. dollar funds and the management teams they have assembled.
US dollar funds have been so intensively directed toward ChinaBiotechExtending an olive branch is an unprecedented scenario in the previous global pharmaceutical ecosystem.
2. Opportunities from the Terminal
Behind the active embrace of Chinese innovative drug assets by US dollar funds, in addition to the scarcity and quality of these assets being more widely recognized,A more important reason is that in recent years, asNewCoMultinational pharmaceutical companies, the most critical end buyers, are facing a transition between old and new core assets. Amid greater uncertainty, they increasingly rely on mergers and acquisitions to rapidly secure new growth drivers.
On one hand, the growth momentum driven by legacy core products is gradually being exhausted.For example, in2025Year,Bristol Myers Squibb(BMS) will faceThe Concentrated Arrival of the Patent Cliff,Revlimid(Lenalidomide)Pomalyst(Pomalidomide) andSprycelThe Patent Crisis Brought by Dasatinib. Among them, theBMSThe greatest impact on performance will be caused byRevlimidpatent expiration. According toBMSEstimated,2025Year,Revlimidsales will shrink to20-25between $100 million,Nearly halved.
InJPMAbove,BMSIt was also mentioned that,2025In the year, will mainly pin hopes onobenfy、Opdivo、Reblozyl、Breyanzi、CamzyosWait5Daxin's Star ProductProp up half of the company's revenue.Among them,2024approved for market launch in [year]Antipsychotic Medications for SchizophreniaCobenfy, has made a good start, and the peak sales are expected toreaching billions of dollars, becomingBMSone of the key growth products。BMSChief Executive OfficerChris BoernerIndicates,BMSExpected to be launched within the next five years10new drug, and obtained30Expansion of New Indications for the Drug.
For example,, Pfizer CEOAlbert BourlaInJPMAt the Conferencestated that the company is preparing for the wave that will sweep through in the coming years“LOE Inspur”Preparation. The so-calledLOEInspur, i.e.Loss of Exclusivity for Blockbuster Drugs.BourlaPoint out, the wave of patent losses could result in approximately annual170100 million~180$100 million in lost sales.
On the other hand, new core products still struggle to meet expectations for sustained performance growth.JPMDuring the conference, Eli Lilly, the largest pharmaceutical company in the U.S. by market capitalization, announced that its earnings fell short of expectations.According toSTAT NewsReport,2024In the fourth quarter of the year, Eli Lilly createdApprox.135$100 million in revenue,below the estimates previously provided by industry analysts139$100 millionexpectations. This news directly caused Eli Lilly's stock price to fall on the day8%. The reason for the earnings miss was that Eli Lilly's2ItemGLP-1Blockbuster DrugMounjaroandZepbound, sales figures were all below expectations.
2022Year5May, Tirzepatide“Injectable Hypoglycemic Formulation”Mounjaro,ObtainFDAApprovalListing. Thereafter,MounjaroLaunched in China and Belgium, with approved indications for glucose-lowering and weight loss.2023Year11Month, Tirzepatide“Weight-Loss Injectable Version” ZepboundApproved for marketing in the United States. Of course, Eli Lilly holds a rather optimistic outlook on these two blockbuster drugs, forecasting2025Annual Saleswill reach580$100 million~610hundred million U.S. dollars.
InJPMAt the conference, multinational pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Gilead Sciences, and Novartis highlighted that their M&A strategies had significantly improved operational performance in recent years, and they would continue to leverage the value of M&A transactions appropriately.For example,Gilead CEODan O'Daystated that after experiencing2021Age2023After two consecutive years of slight revenue decline, Gilead2024reverse this trend and sustain the positive momentum in the coming years, as past investments are translating into commercial benefits.
Arrived2033Year,Gilead'sPotent DrugsBiktarvywill lose market exclusivity, with subsequent plans to launchHIVProductto mitigate the impact of the loss of market exclusivity. Among them,Gilead inHIVThe Most Core Product in the Field, is administered via injection twice a yearlenacapavir. This is a pioneering, novel long-actingHIV-1Capsid Inhibitors.2016In [year], Gilead Sciences fromArrowhead PharmaceuticalsIntroducedlenacapavirglobal development and commercialization rights.2022Year,lenacapavirApproved in Europe and the United States for the treatment ofHIV-1infection, and was selected by Science magazine as2024One of the Breakthrough Drugs of the Year.Estimated to2025Summer,lenacapavirwill alsoApproved forHIV-1Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for Infection (PrEP)。
In addition,2024Year,Gilead Sciences,43Acquisition for Hundreds of Millions of US DollarsCymaBayLiver Disease Drugs Obtained at the Timeseladelpar, has been approved for market launch and is expected to become a new growth engine.
Meanwhile, Pfizer is alsoJPMDuring the Conferencestated that in recent years, the company has, to some extent, offset the threats posed by the wave of patent expirations through a series of acquisitions. Chief Executive OfficerBourlaIt pointed out that Pfizer had previouslywith430acquired for hundreds of millions of US dollarsSeagen,EstimatedTo2030Year, will beCorporate Creation200$100 millionsales revenue. Judging from the current revenue situation, Pfizer's performance has begun to resume growth. In2024In the first three quarters of the year, Pfizer's total revenue reached458.64hundred million U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase2%. In thisJPM2025At the conference, Pfizer announced2025Annual Performance Guidance, with Total Revenue Expected to Be610-640hundred million U.S. dollars.
At the present stage, from within ChinaBiotechinnovative drug assets have rarely become a new growth driver for multinational pharmaceutical companies. The transition between old and new core pipelines of multinational pharmaceutical companies undoubtedly provides domesticBiotechOffers an excellent opportunity to integrate into the global pharmaceutical commerce.
3. Asset transactions will remain the theme of the year
"If we look back from a longer-term perspective,"2025This year could be the most active year for asset transactions.
First, multinational pharmaceutical companies are taking action with increasing frequency.In addition to the aforementioned2PenNewCoBeyond transactions, as soon as the year began, there were3A multinational pharmaceutical company has announced a major pipeline transaction.Just asJPMOn the first day of the conference opening,Johnson & Johnson Announces Major Investment in Neurology,146Acquisition for Hundreds of Millions of US Dollars to Focus on Innovative Drug R&D for Central Nervous System DiseasesIntra-Cellular Therapie. Refreshed2024Record Value of M&A Transactions in the Global Biopharmaceutical Sector Since [Year]
Subsequently,Eli Lilly inJPMIt was announced during the conference that, with10$100 Million Upfront Payment SecuredScorpion TherapeuticsofPI3KAlpha Inhibitor ProjectSTX-478, for the treatment of advanced solid tumors, including breast cancer, endometrial cancer, and urothelial carcinoma;Gilead also struck a deal to17introduced with a total transaction value of hundreds of millions of U.S. dollarsLeo PharmaofSTAT6Inhibitor, for the treatment of inflammatory diseases such as atopic dermatitis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Notably, Johnson & Johnson's acquisitionIntra-Cellular this transaction, alsoSurpassing Bristol-Myers Squibb's AcquisitionKaruna、AbbVie AcquisitionCerevel, becoming2023sinceThe Most Significant M&A Deal in the Field of Neurological Disorders.Through this transaction, Johnson & Johnson acquiredIntra-CellularCore AssetsCaplyta。
This blockbuster new drug was launched in2019Year12month, byFDAApproved for the treatment of adult patients with schizophrenia, and2021Year12New indications added this month, approved for adjuvant therapy withIType orIIdepressive episodes associated with Type II bipolar disorder (bipolar depression). Currently,Intra-Cellularalso toFDASubmittedCaplytaof the3A new marketing application for an additional indication, specifically as an adjunctive therapy for major depressive disorder. According to Johnson & Johnson’s projections,CaplytaAnnual sales peak will exceed50$100 million, ranking among the top in neurology drug salesTOP3。
Secondly, in ChinaBiotechM&A activities have also become more active.InJPMPrior to the conference, there were3DomesticBiotechIntensive M&A Deals with Overseas Pharmaceutical Companies, Including Multinational Giants Such as Johnson & Johnson
1Month9On [date], TianGuangShi Biologics announced,Monoclonal AntibodyMIL116withClimb BioEntered into an exclusive license agreement. According toMutual Agreement,Climb BioPayment to Tianguangshi Bio900$10,000 in upfront cash,as well as the corresponding milestone payments, royalties, etc. It is understood that,MIL116is an innovative product independently developed by TianGuangShi BiologicsAPRILAntibodies, mainly used forIgA Treatment of Kidney Disease. Preclinical data show that,MIL116 Superior to Novartis’s antibody in the same classZigakibart, demonstrating favorable pharmacokinetic properties and possessing the potential to become a best-in-class product.
The following day, Hezheng Pharmaceutical and the Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica, Chinese Academy of Sciences, jointly announced that they hadSigned a global licensing agreement with Johnson & Johnson to develop a potential best-in-classBTKDegradantHZ-Q1070,Indicated for the treatment of hematologic malignancies and various autoimmune diseases. On the same day,Xianweida Biopharmaceuticals AnnouncesGLP-1Product Portfolio,andVerdivaReached a global development and commercialization licensing and collaboration agreement, excluding Greater China and South Korea, with a transaction value exceeding24$100 million。
Finally, in terms of sub-sectors, apart fromJPMNeurological disease drugs involved in major transactions during the conference,HIVPharmaceuticals, cardiovascular disease drugs, metabolic disease drugs, etc., bispecific antibodies/ADCAlso2025Hot areas to watch this year.Among them, bispecific antibodies/ADCThe sector remains highly active, with pharmaceutical giants such as Roche and GlaxoSmithKline ramping up their investments in this field. Notably, in ChinaBiotechShunjing Medicine's Innovative Bispecific AntibodySGT003AtJPMMade a stunning debut at the conference, with preclinical study data showing,SGT003Significantly reduceTregsandTAMsthe quantity. At lower doses,SGT003Comparison with marketed anti-PD-1Monoclonal Antibodies and Anti-CTLA-4Monoclonal antibodies demonstrate more significant tumor-suppressive effects and are non-irritating.TNF-The release of α and other factors has drawn industry attention.
Of course,JPMAfter the excitement of the conference, in ChinaBiotechOnce again, we will return to cultivating in an environment of financial constraints. Among the corporate representatives who traveled to San Francisco with transaction mandates, perhaps only a few will be able to return with intentions of closing deals. However, the olive branches extended by U.S. dollar funds and the urgent demand for new products from multinational pharmaceutical companies have made domesticBiotechWith the confidence and possibility to move forward.