Guohai Securities: Neuralink's Mass Production Imminent, Domestic Brain-Computer Interface Supply Chain Poised for Significant Benefits

Guohai Securities released a research report stating that Neuralink’s announcement of mass production in 2026, representing a scalable breakthrough in brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), marks a turning point for the field as it transitions from laboratory R&D to large-scale commercial application. Given the rigid demand in medical rehabilitation, the broad potential of non-invasive technologies in the consumer market, and the accelerated layout of domestic policy support and industrial chain infrastructure, Chinese BCI industry chain enterprises are poised to benefit first. Based on this, the firm maintains its “Overweight” rating for the computer industry.

Guohai Securities' main views are as follows:

Event

On January 1, 2026 (U.S. time), Elon Musk announced on social media that his brain-computer interface company, Neuralink, would commence large-scale mass production in 2026 and transition to a more streamlined, fully automated surgical procedure.

Neuralink Establishes Three Major Production Lines, Aiming for Global Human-AI Interconnectivity in the Long Term

Neuralink is a biomedical company founded by Elon Musk in 2016, primarily focused on achieving high-precision interaction between the brain and external devices through minimally invasive implantable devices. The technological system includes implantable chips, flexible electrode threads, automated surgical robots, and supporting interface software. Based on different brain regions, three major product lines have currently been established:

(1) Telepathy: Designed for patients with motor impairments, mind-controlled operation of electronic devices and robotic arms has already been achieved using 64-channel devices;

(2) Blindsight: Focusing on visual reconstruction by stimulating the visual cortex with high-channel electrodes, aiming to achieve black-and-white contour perception by 2026, with potential future integration with VR/AR technologies to construct digital vision;

(3) Deep Invasiveness: Targeting the field of neuromodulation, deep brain electrode implantation is used to regulate abnormal neuronal firing. Therapeutic protocols for conditions such as Parkinson’s disease and depression have entered the animal experimentation phase.

Elon Musk stated that Neuralink’s ultimate goal is to achieve neuronal monitoring and writing in any region of the brain, enabling deep connectivity through high-speed wireless transmission, and ultimately popularizing mind-controlled operation of Tesla’s Optimus robots. To this end, its short-term plans are as follows: In 2026, increase the number of device electrodes to 3,000 and initiate vision restoration; in 2027, increase the number of electrodes to 10,000 and enable multi-device implantation in the motor cortex, speech cortex, or visual cortex; in 2028, increase the number of electrodes to 25,000, fully access any region of the brain, reach deeper brain areas to treat psychiatric disorders and neuropathic pain, and simultaneously explore AI interconnectivity for all humanity beyond medical applications for the first time.

Medical Necessity Leads, Consumer Industry Follows: Brain-Computer Interfaces Spawn a Hundred-Billion-Yuan Market

The brain-computer interface (BCI) market demonstrates strong growth potential, with Precedence Statistics projecting the global downstream application market size to reach approximately $3.19 billion by 2025. McKinsey further predicts that the global market for medical applications of BCIs is expected to reach $40 billion and $145 billion by 2030 and 2040, respectively. Within this, the disease treatment segment is projected to account for $15 billion and $85 billion, while the medical consumer market is anticipated to grow to $25 billion and $60 billion. Meanwhile, BCI products primarily based on non-invasive technologies—such as sleep-aid devices, intelligent dexterous hands, and bionic legs—are also showing broad application prospects in areas including sleep health, rehabilitation care, and consumer entertainment.

Focusing on the Chinese market, AskCI Consulting andCCID ConsultingThe domestic brain-computer interface (BCI) market size in China is projected to exceed RMB 3.8 billion in 2025, continuing to expand at an annual growth rate of approximately 20%, and is expected to reach RMB 6.14 billion by 2028. The current industry landscape is characterized by “medical necessities leading the way, with consumer and industrial applications gradually following suit.” In the medical field, demand is well-defined; BCI has demonstrated high clinical efficacy in scenarios such as spinal cord injury rehabilitation. Furthermore, the inclusion of BCI-related procedures as independently billable items under medical insurance has further incentivized procurement by healthcare institutions. In the consumer electronics sector, products such as thought-controlled typing and sleep monitoring systems have entered mass production via original equipment manufacturing (OEM). Industrial applications are currently largely in the experimental phase, with brain-controlled robotic arms showing potential value in precision assembly and high-risk operations.

Policy Paving the Way to Build an Industrial Support System; Technological Breakthroughs Achieve Multidimensional Milestones

At the policy level, China has established a multi-tiered, comprehensive support system for the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry. Seven departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Innovative Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry," explicitly setting the goal of establishing an internationally competitive industrial ecosystem by 2030. The National Healthcare Security Administration has innovatively introduced pricing items for BCI medical services, providing a clear basis for clinical charges. Local governments in Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Beijing have implemented precise policies covering the entire chain from research and development and clinical applications to pricing and insurance reimbursement. Zhejiang has included adaptation fees for non-invasive BCIs in its medical insurance coverage; Shanghai has launched the "Brain Intelligence World" cluster area, offering financial support of up to RMB 50 million; and Beijing is promoting technology transfer through standard-setting and platform construction.

In terms of technology, China’s brain-computer interface (BCI) field achieved multiple breakthroughs in 2025, forming a landscape of parallel development across multiple technical routes. In the invasive domain, the first clinical trial of an invasive BCI was successfully conducted, making China the second country in the world to master this technology. In the semi-invasive domain, the “Beinao No. 1” initiated multi-center clinical trials. Non-invasive technologies also saw innovations in areas such as ultrasound pathways. The first clinical implantation of a fully domestically produced BCI chip was completed. High-throughput wireless systems (such as the 256-channel WRS02) compressed end-to-end latency to under 100 milliseconds and innovatively adopted online recalibration technology to maintain high system performance. BCI technology is transitioning from laboratory research to large-scale application.

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Risk Warning:Macroeconomic Impact on Downstream Demand; AI Development Falling Short of Expectations; Legal and Regulatory Uncertainties in AI Application Development; Intensified Market Competition; Escalating US-China Strategic Rivalry; Fluctuations in Raw Material Prices; Underperformance of Related Companies.