AbbVie Reaffirms $15 Billion Combined 2025 Sales Forecast for Immunology Blockbusters Rinvoq and Skyrizi Amid Label Updates and Strategic Shifts

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Recently, the 40th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM) kicked off. Before delivering its company presentation at JPM, AbbVie took the unusual step of issuing another official announcement to reaffirm the significant guidance for its two rising immunology stars: Rinvoq, an oral JAK1 inhibitor, and Skyrizi, an IL-23 inhibitor. The company stated that it expects the combined sales of these two drugs to reach $15 billion by 2025.

Why update a valuation that hasn't changed? Although AbbVie expects the combined sales forecast for these two drugs to remain unchanged, the forecasts for each drug have shifted. In a published announcement on the company’s website, AbbVie lowered the expected sales for Rinvoq in 2025 by $500 million while increasing the forecast for Skyrizi by $500 million.

Rinvoq's Sales Expectations Adjusted Due to Label WarningRinvoq, an oral JAK1 inhibitor, has been approved in the United States for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. Just four weeks ago, the drug received its second indication for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis. As a JAK inhibitor, Rinvoq has undergone strict scrutiny by the U.S. FDA due to safety concerns. In the new label, the use of Rinvoq is restricted to patients who have previously tried TNF inhibitors, whereas before, it could be used by patients who had not received TNF inhibitors.

AbbVie President Michael Severino said, "We have seen the RA label, we have seen how it is used, and we have also seen increased confidence from treating physicians and the investment community based on the updated label. Based on the clear benefits and overall risk-benefit profile we have provided for Rinvoq, we remain confident in the safety profile of this drug."

Although this label warning will weaken the sales of Rinvoq in the U.S. market, AbbVie explained that there are offsetting factors, as the company now expects higher projected sales for Rinvoq in international markets after positive results from Phase 3 studies, as well as higher expected global sales in the treatment of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease.

Michael Severino said, "The data from the clinical trials for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease exceeded our expectations. This is true from both safety and efficacy perspectives."

Meanwhile, AbbVie stated that the adjustment of Skyrizi's expected sales guidance is based on its continued strong performance in psoriasis.

Given that AbbVie's cash cow—its flagship product Humira (adalimumab)—will face biosimilar competition in the U.S. market in 2023, sales forecasts for these two new immunology products are being closely watched. In 2020, Humira generated $20.39 billion in sales, marking its 9th consecutive year as the world’s best-selling drug.

On Tuesday, AbbVie said it expects Rinvoq and Skyrizi to cover all of Humira's indications, with the additional indication of atopic dermatitis. Rob Michael, AbbVie’s chief financial officer, said: “We fully believe that Rinvoq and Skyrizi will outperform Humira in sales.”

Investment bank Piper Sandler reacted positively to AbbVie's forecast. Analyst Christopher Raymond wrote in a report to investors: "With the long-term revenue outlook for the immunology franchise now clarified, combined with the commercial momentum of the emerging neurology franchise and aesthetics business, we continue to view AbbVie as being in a strong growth position following the loss of Humira’s exclusivity. We continue to see AbbVie as a top-tier biotech company and it remains our top large-cap pick."

Reference Source: AbbVie says Rinvoq, Skyrizi combined will outperform Humira