Interface News reporter |
Interface News Editor |Xie Xin
Recently, Fujian Province has disclosed the selected varieties and prices for the 2023 non-immunization program vaccine procurement project. The list shows that the first domestically produced herpes zoster vaccine by Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. is priced at 1,369 yuan per dose, while GSK's herpes zoster vaccine (brand name: Shingrix) is quoted at 1,598 yuan per vial.
However, the vaccine by Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. is a live attenuated vaccine, administered in a single dose, while GSK's vaccine is a recombinant zoster vaccine, administered in two doses. Based on this, after completing all doses, individuals choosing the vaccine from Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. would spend approximately 1,400 yuan, whereas those opting for GSK's vaccine would spend just over 3,000 yuan.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co.'s quotation in Fujian Province has attracted attention because securities firms previously estimated that the price of this domestically produced shingles vaccine would not exceed 1,300 yuan per dose. However, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co.'s current quotation has already broken this expectation. Looking at the price per single dose, in the current "1+1" competitive landscape of the shingles vaccine market, the unit prices of domestically produced and imported products have basically reached the same level.
Specifically, the research report from Southwest Securities shows that the price of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co.'s live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine is expected to be around 900-1300 yuan; Huaxin Securities expects the pricing of this product to be below 1000 yuan; according to the prospectus of Green Bamboo Biotech, the price of their research product, recombinant herpes zoster vaccine LZ901, is expected to be 500-800 yuan/dose. LZ901 is currently in Phase II clinical trials.
It should be noted that the LZ901 vaccination course by Green Bamboo Biotech also consists of two doses, aligning with GSK's recombinant shingles vaccine in terms of technical approach and administration method. Estimating the full two-dose regimen, the cost ranges from 1,000 to 1,600 yuan, which is half the price of the GSK vaccine.
Overall, none of the predictions have seen the shingles vaccine adopt a "high-price strategy." As of press time, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. has not responded regarding the pricing strategy of its product.
As is known to all, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. is a subsidiary of Changchun High & New Technology Industries (Group) Inc. Together with Jin Sai Pharmaceutical, which specializes in growth hormone products, they jointly support the profitability of Changchun High & New Technology Industries (Group) Inc. In recent years, due to factors such as Jin Sai Pharmaceutical's products being involved in the centralized procurement of growth hormones, there have been repeated concerns about whether Changchun High & New Technology Industries (Group) Inc. can remain "evergreen."
Unlike Kinsay Pharmaceutical, the main products of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. are varicella vaccine, rabies vaccine, and influenza vaccine. Among these three products, the varicella vaccine is the company's primary source of revenue. From 2019 to 2021, the varicella vaccine accounted for 97.06%, 76.83%, and 84.88% of Bcht Biotechnology's income, respectively.
In addition, the varicella vaccine and the freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine are currently the marketed products of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. The rabies vaccine was discontinued for renovation in 2018, and whether it can be completed as planned for technical upgrades and subsequent commercialization remains uncertain. In other words, the main products sold by Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. are the varicella vaccine and the influenza vaccine.
Previously, affected by the inventory write-down provision for influenza vaccines, the 2022 earnings快报 (earnings report) of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. showed that the company achieved revenue of 1.071 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.86%; net profit attributable to shareholders of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.42%; and non-recurring net profit of 167 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.58%.
The same situation occurred in 2021. After making an impairment provision of more than 80 million yuan for its vaccine inventory, the company achieved a revenue of 1.202 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 16.60%; and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 245 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.77%. Therefore, it is evident that Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co., whose performance has declined for two consecutive years, indeed needs a product that can boost its performance.
The shingles vaccine appears to be a promising product. In recent years, the vaccination rate for this product in China has continued to rise. According to Frost & Sullivan, the vaccination rate among people aged 50 or above in China increased from 0.04% in 2020 to approximately 0.13% in 2022. However, with an overall vaccination rate of less than 1% in this category, it also reflects its potential.
At the same time, between 2020 and 2023, GSK was the only company providing herpes zoster vaccine products in China, and there were also shortages in some regions. There is an urgent need for other manufacturers to "fill the gap," which presents an opportunity for Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. However, whether the herpes zoster vaccine can save the performance of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. remains highly uncertain.
On the one hand, it is a matter of technical routes. In the field of shingles, the well-known international products are Zostavax, the live attenuated shingles vaccine from Merck & Co., Inc. (MSD), and the recombinant subunit shingles vaccine from GlaxoSmithKline PLC. However, in November 2020, due to issues such as its technical route and relatively low protection rate, MSD's live attenuated shingles vaccine was withdrawn from the U.S. market. Currently, the vaccine approved for use by Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. also follows the attenuated route.
On the other hand, in the promotion of the shingles vaccine, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. has just started. In 2020, the global sales of GSK's recombinant shingles vaccine reached 1.989 billion pounds, ranking fourth in global vaccine sales. This not only reflects the commercial value of the shingles vaccine but also implies that Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. faces very strong competitors.
Moreover, although Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co.'s product is approved for use in adults aged 40 and above, which appears to be "10 years ahead" of GSK in terms of the approved age range, providing a broader applicable population, the promotion of Bcht's product will not be easy when considering the disease incidence and the long-standing market perception of "50 years and above."
Notably, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co. is also developing a recombinant shingles vaccine. Previously, during institutional research, the company revealed that its current annual production capacity for the shingles vaccine is 5 million doses, with an expected future increase to 8 million doses per year. The currently marketed product is a live attenuated vaccine, while the company is actively advancing the development of a recombinant shingles vaccine, aiming for high efficacy and reduced side effects. The expanded production capacity will be allocated for the recombinant vaccine. The company estimates that its exclusive advantage in China can be maintained for 3-4 years.