Lilly's Mounjaro Demonstrates Superior Glycemic Control and Weight Loss in Late-Stage Trial, Intensifying GLP-1 Market Competition

According to the details of a latest study, Eli Lilly's (LLY.US) diabetes drug Mounjaro can significantly reduce blood sugar levels in obese diabetes patients, intensifying the competition in the GLP-1 field.

Results from a study released late Friday by Eli Lilly at the American Diabetes Association meeting in San Diego showed that in this late-stage study, about half of the participants' blood sugar levels dropped to within the normal range, with an overall decrease of 2.1 percentage points. By comparison, in another similar standalone study, patients treated with semaglutide (the active ingredient in several of Novo Nordisk's (NVO.US) diabetes and weight loss drugs) experienced a 1.6 percentage point drop in blood sugar.

Tim Garvey, director of the Diabetes Research Center at the University of Alabama and lead author of the study, said in an interview that Mounjaro "may be the best drug for treating diabetes aside from insulin, which suggests it’s also the best drug for treating diabetes-related obesity."

These details flesh out the main findings of Eli Lilly's final-phase study released in April, which the company plans to use to apply for Mounjaro's obesity treatment approval in the United States. This complete study adds another layer of efficacy to a product that has already achieved tremendous success and is expected to propel Eli Lilly to become the most valuable pharmaceutical company in the world.

Currently, diabetes is one of the most common serious diseases in the world. According to an estimate published Thursday in the medical journal *The Lancet*, the number of people globally with diabetes is projected to more than double by 2050, reaching approximately 1.3 billion, primarily due to aging populations and rising obesity rates.

Among them, type 2 diabetes is one of the most common types of diabetes and is usually associated with obesity. Mounjaro is a weekly injectable medication originally developed as a diabetes drug. After injection, it can induce a feeling of fullness. This has also led many people to start using this drug as a weight-loss aid.

In patients treated with Eli Lilly's drug, the average level of A1C hemoglobin (a widely used indicator for measuring blood sugar levels) dropped from 8% to 5.9%. The post-treatment level is close to the normal range — below 5.7% — which is associated with a reduced risk of diabetes complications such as heart, kidney, nerve, and eye diseases.

Moreover, no cases of severe hypoglycemia were reported among those receiving treatment (which can sometimes occur when diabetes is aggressively managed). Hypoglycemia can cause a range of symptoms, including disorientation and, in severe cases, loss of consciousness. Hypoglycemia can lead to many symptoms, including confusion, and sometimes results in unconsciousness in severe situations.

Garvey described the study as a landmark, because it demonstrated the drug's ability to control blood sugar, which is typically difficult to achieve in diabetes patients. According to preliminary data released in April, Mounjaro helped diabetes and obesity patients lose 15% of their body weight, or about 30 pounds.

Similarly, Wall Street has high expectations for these new drugs known as GLP-1s. Jefferies predicts that the market size for this class of drugs will reach $150 billion by 2031. Some analysts believe that Mounjaro will soon surpass Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Saxenda to become the best-selling drug in its category. Novo Nordisk’s diabetes drug Ozempic is also being used for weight loss.

Mounjaro was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May of last year for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Eli Lilly anticipates that this drug will become a blockbuster medication this year, with average sales in 2023 reaching $3.5 billion.