Semaglutide Shows Significant Efficacy in Chronic Kidney Disease, Triggering Major Stock Market Reactions

Oct 12, 2023 09:11 CST Updated 09:11

Novo Nordisk

Insulin Developer and Manufacturer

Novo Nordisk's Semaglutide Mid-Stage Data on Chronic Kidney Disease Causes Significant Stock Price Fluctuations

GLP-1Can peptides have the potential to achieve the same level of versatility as Humira, managing multiple indications single-handedly?

From the current development trend, this is not impossible. Apart from their primary function as hypoglycemic drugs,GLP-1Peptide therapies for obesity management have also been approved and launched. The next beneficiaries may be in a market with no competition.NASH (Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis), cardiovascular diseases, Alzheimer's disease, etc.SemaglutideLatest Data in Kidney Disease Sparks Shockwaves in Pharmaceutical Industry, with Dialysis Equipment Manufacturers Hit FirstSemaglutideThe shockwave has already posed a real and tangible threat to them.

Novo Nordisk10Month10announced that their diabetes drug Ozempic In a renal failure study, it demonstrated "surprising" early efficacy. This news took immediate effect like a neural signal transmission, impacting the world's largest dialysis provider, the German companyFresenius Medical Care AG & Co.’ Stock Price Plummets.

Novo Nordisk announced that an independent data monitoring committee (DMC, data monitoring committeeAn interim analysis by an independent expert team or committee, typically composed of healthcare professionals, statisticians, and ethics experts responsible for monitoring and evaluating the data and safety of clinical trials, has found that the clinical trial for renal failure has already met the pre-established efficacy criteria. Therefore, it is recommended to halt the study.DMCIt can make a recommendation to terminate the trial early based on very excellent clinical data.) It is expected that2024In the first half of the year, Novo Nordisk can obtain the complete research results.

Novo This trial is calledFLOW, a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled superiority trial comparing injectionsemaglutide 1.0 mg Compared with placebo, in terms of preventing the progression of kidney damage and the risk of renal and cardiovascular death, for patients with2 Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease(CKD) of patients. The trial included a total of3534 Ginseng participation, in28 National400 Conducted at multiple research sites.FLOW Test on2019 Launched in [Year].

As the saying goes, "A duck knows when the river water warms in spring," the ones first shaken by this positive news are, surprisingly, the world's largest dialysis supplier.Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. . Their stock prices plummeted immediately in Frankfurt.24%, marking the largest decline on record, with a market value loss of over25 EUR billion (27 USD billion). In addition,Baxter International Inc. AndDaVita Inc. (Both have significant business in the dialysis field) fell respectively in the early U.S. trading session.7% And15%In contrast, Novo Nordisk's stock price rose again in Copenhagen.4.4%, which is the largest single-day increase in two months.（Figure1）。

Figure1. Fresenius, Baxter, DaVitaNovo Nordisk2023Annual Stock Price Trend Chart. (Source: Bloomberg)

Citigroup analyst Veronika Dubajova said in a report that the early termination of the clinical trial indicated that the drug being tested showed effects faster than previously expected. She believes that kidney disease is one of the new areas where drugs like Ozempic can be effective. Citigroup noted that even before the renal study of Ozempic, investors had already been concerned about the impact of these powerful drugs on kidney dialysis manufacturers and service providers.

The influence of Semaglutide has clearly gone beyond its initial application for type 2 diabetes. Jefferies Financial Group even predicts that the market potential of a series of brand drugs under Semaglutide could reach around $150 billion.

Efficacy of GLP-1 Peptides in Managing Chronic Kidney Disease

As is known to all, due to their physiological effects in regulating blood glucose levels, appetite, digestion, and lipid metabolism, incretin and its analogs can have an impact across various disease areas. These multifunctional properties make incretin and its analogs a significant focus in medical research and treatment.

There is a correlation between renal failure and gut hormones, which is related to the balance and metabolism of hormones in the body, as well as the impact of these hormones on chronic kidney disease. Although research in this area is still in its early stages and many uncertainties remain, GLP-1 and its analogs may have some potential physiological and therapeutic effects on renal failure, specifically manifested in the following aspects:

Lowering Blood Sugar Levels: GLP-1 is a potent blood sugar-lowering hormone that can stimulate insulin secretion, inhibit glucagon secretion, and delay gastric emptying. These effects help improve blood sugar control, which may be particularly important for diabetic patients with kidney disease. Controlling blood sugar levels can reduce the risk of kidney disease progression.
Anti-inflammatory and Anti-fibrotic: GLP-1 receptors are present in kidney tissues. Studies have shown that the activation of GLP-1 receptors can reduce renal inflammation and fibrosis. This may play a positive role in slowing the progression of kidney disease, as inflammation and fibrosis are among the key mechanisms in the development of kidney diseases.
Protecting Kidney Function: Some experimental studies and small-scale clinical trials have shown that GLP-1 and its analogs may help protect kidney function. This includes reducing proteinuria, improving filtration rates, etc., which may help slow the progression of renal failure. Patients with chronic kidney disease often have proteinuria, a sign of kidney damage. Some studies suggest that GLP-1 drugs may reduce proteinuria, which is beneficial for protecting kidney function.

Ref.
Novo Nordisk will stop the once-weekly injectable semaglutide kidney outcomes trial, FLOW, based on interim analysis. Novo Nordisk. 10. 10. 2323.
Kresge, N. Novo’s Blockbuster Ozempic Now Shows Kidney Promise, Hitting Rivals. Bloomberg. 11. 10. 2023.

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