J&J's $2.86B Blockbuster Stelara Faces Patent Cliff: Can Talquetamab and Carvykti Become the Next Mega-Drugs?
Johnson & Johnson
Healthcare Product Manufacturers, Health Service Providers
Recently, Johnson & Johnson announced its Q3 financial report for 2023, with third-quarter sales reaching $21.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The full-year revenue forecast has been raised to $83.6-$84 billion.
Among them, ustekinumab, a psoriasis treatment drug, remains Johnson & Johnson's best-selling product, with revenue of $2.864 billion in the third quarter and $8.105 billion in the first three quarters. However, its patent expired in September 2023, and a decline in sales is an inevitable challenge that Johnson & Johnson will have to face.
How to solve it? It probably needs to start from Johnson & Johnson's numerous R&D pipelines and marketed drugs.
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Immunotherapy and Oncology Drugs Stand in Opposition,
Johnson & Johnson Q3 Earnings Analysis
Johnson & Johnson's Q3 2023 revenue covered six major areas: immunology, oncology, cardiovascular/metabolism, infectious diseases/vaccines, neuroscience, and pulmonary hypertension, totaling $13.893 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%.
Figure 1 Sales of Johnson & Johnson drugs in various fields
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson Official Website
Among them, the revenue from immunology drugs was $4.849 billion, accounting for approximately 35% of the total revenue, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; the revenue from oncology drugs was $4.533 billion, accounting for 32% of the total revenue in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 11.5%.
It can be seen that immunology and oncology drugs together accounted for nearly 70% of the pharmaceutical business revenue, mainly due to the immunology drug Stelara (ustekinumab) and the anti-cancer drug Darzalex (daratumumab).The top two spots in sales for the first three quarters of 2023 were taken by these two, and the table below shows the top 10 drugs by sales for Johnson & Johnson in the first three quarters of 2023.
Table 1 Top 10 Johnson & Johnson Product Sales Information in 2023
Data Source: Johnson & Johnson Q3 2023 Earnings Report
However, like all pharmaceutical companies, Johnson & Johnson has to face the issue of drug patent expiration. The patent for ustekinumab expired in September 2023, and it will face competition from multiple pharmaceutical companies, making it inevitable that its market share will be divided.
Faced with this predicament, Johnson & Johnson has long been prepared, starting its layout in multiple fields such as oncology, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular.
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94 drugs under research,
Who is the Next Billion-Dollar Product?
Figure 2 shows the status of products under research that I found on the Johnson & Johnson official website.A total of 94 product pipelines are in Phase 1 or higher clinical stages., including 14 in NDA phase, 39 in Phase III clinical trials, 22 in Phase II clinical trials, and 19 in Phase I clinical trials.
Figure 2 Johnson & Johnson's R&D Product Pipeline
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson Official Website
Table 2 below shows the detailed information of Johnson & Johnson's drugs under research, which is divided into six major categories: cardiovascular/metabolic, infectious diseases/vaccines, immunological diseases, neurology, oncology, and pulmonary arterial hypertension.
Among them,The oncology field boasts the richest pipeline under research, with a total of 36 projects (28 drugs) in clinical stages, accounting for nearly 40% of all pipelines.6 items at the NDA stage, 17 items at clinical Phase III, 3 items at clinical Phase II, and 10 items at clinical Phase I.
Table 2 Overview of Johnson & Johnson's Clinical Stage Product Pipeline
Data Source: Johnson & Johnson Official Website
Are there any potential blockbusters in Johnson & Johnson's product lineup? Who will be the next billion-dollar单品?
The highly anticipated product is Talquetamab.bThe drug is a GPRC5D bispecific antibody used to treat relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. It was reported that Talquetamab received accelerated FDA approval in August this year. Clinical data shows that the overall response rate of Talquetamab can reach approximately 70%.
In the market aspect, according to data statistics, the global multiple myeloma market size was approximately USD 19.5 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach USD 31 billion by 2026. If Talquetamab can seize the opportunity and rise, it will alleviate the pressure faced by Johnson & Johnson to a certain extent.
The second product is the CAR-T therapy drug Carvykti, commercialized in collaboration with Legend Biotech.The drug was approved for marketing in February 2022 and is mainly used for the treatment of relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. The drug's sales in 2022 were $0.55 billion, and the sales in the first three quarters of 2023 reached $3.41 billion. It is expected that the sales next year will exceed $1 billion. It is believed that Carvykti will bring substantial profits to Johnson & Johnson.
Both of the above drugs are in the field of oncology, perhaps proving that Johnson & Johnson is making a strong push in this area. It remains to be seen whether it can become the next leader in the field of oncology.
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Summary
Johnson & Johnson is currently facing internal adjustments, while the patents of several blockbuster drugs are about to expire—STELARA (patent expires in 2023), SIMPONI (patent expires in 2024), and DARZALEX (patent expires in 2029)—all of which rank among the top ten in Johnson & Johnson's single-product sales. Facing the dual pressures of drug patent expirations and internal corporate adjustments, how Johnson & Johnson will respond in the future remains to be seen.
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