2023 ADC Market Surpasses $10 Billion, with Enhertu Projected to Reach $2.5 Billion in Sales

　　【Pharmaceutical Network Industry Dynamics] In 2023, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) gained significant attention within the industry. Data shows that the global ADC market size reached $7.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2023 and is expected to exceed $10 billion for the full year.
 

It is estimated that six ADC products may exceed $1 billion, including Kadcyla (Trastuzumab) and Enhertu (Trastuzumab Deruxtecan).
 

Among them, the sales of Enhertu from AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo are expected to exceed 2.5 billion US dollars this year. This drug belongs to the third-generation ADC drugs and was launched in 2019. With its breakthrough drug design concept, it has shown outstanding clinical effects in the treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer.
 

On March 7, 2023, AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo announced that in a Phase II clinical trial (DESTINY-PanTumor02), Enhertu achieved the two efficacy endpoints of objective response rate and duration of response, demonstrating sustained responses in heavily pretreated patients with various HER2-expressing advanced solid tumors. The enrolled patients had cancer types including biliary tract cancer, bladder cancer, cervical cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, and rare tumors.
 

Industry insiders predict that Enhertu can cover a wide range of solid tumor types and has already been approved globally for five oncology indications: HER2-positive breast cancer, gastric cancer, gastroesophageal junction cancer, HER2-low breast cancer, and non-small cell lung cancer. In the future, this product is expected to capture the majority of the ADC market in the HER2 drug field. In 2022, the product's sales reached $1.238 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 190%.
 

Kadcyla is Facing Strong Pressure from Enhertu. As a second-generation ADC drug that hit the market in 2013, Kadcyla's sales exceeded $1 billion in 2018. However, with the outstanding performance of Enhertu, Kadcyla’s position is being shaken. To address the challenge, Roche has announced two price cuts for Kadcyla since 2022, with a reduction of 56.7%. Despite this, Kadcyla’s sales growth in 2022 dropped to 0.5%, reaching 2.08 billion Swiss francs (approximately $2.18 billion).
 

In the Chinese market, on February 21, 2023, Enhertu was also approved for marketing in China. Currently, the number of breast cancer patients in China is large, with about 420,000 new cases of breast cancer each year. The demand for breast cancer treatment among patients continues to grow.
 

The industry believes that Enhertu, as a breakthrough drug in the field of breast cancer treatment, may change the pattern of Roche's Kadcyla as the first-line medication for HER2-positive breast cancer patients in China, with the approval of Enhertu in China this year.
 

It is worth mentioning that no ADC drugs have appeared in the new round of medical insurance negotiations. Insiders believe that the technical difficulty of ADC is high, its use is complex, and its cost is relatively high, which may pose challenges to the refined management of medical insurance drugs and the supervision of drug use.
 

However, some analysts have noted that 51% of clinical ADC drugs in China have entered Phase II and beyond, while globally this figure is only 42% (including China). At the same time, China has a large and well-progressed pipeline, with these assets widely recognized globally, as evidenced by the increase in global ADC deals.
 

It is reported that since 2023, global ADC transactions have been booming, with the presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies. A research report by Huajin Securities on December 12 pointed out that since 2023, there have been more than 10 overseas licensing deals for domestically produced ADCs in China, including three licensing agreements reached between BioNTech and DualityBio, as well as Alkyn Biopharma, involving four ADC drugs. In addition, on December 12, Baili Tianhe announced that it would license the global rights outside of China for its EGFR/HER3 ADC new drug BL-B01D1 to Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS). The potential total value of this transaction could reach up to 8.4 billion US dollars.
 

Disclaimer: In any case, the information or opinions expressed in this article do not constitute investment advice to any person.