In 2023, a surge in demand for blood glucose regulation, diabetes, and obesity drugs became a major trend in the biopharmaceutical industry, leading to a reshaping of the pharmaceutical landscape.

According to a recent report by Evaluate, in 2024,Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are expected to become the top two companies in global "new sales revenue."Analysts expect,Novo NordiskThe new sales will approach 8 billion US dollars in 2024, andEli LillySales will approach $5 billion.

Other companies that performed well on Evaluate's 2024 global new sales list includeAstraZenecaAndAmgen(Sales increased by more than 4 billion US dollars), andRoche(Sales close to $4 billion). It is expected that other companies are unlikely to generate more than $3 billion in new revenue.Evaluate stated that AstraZeneca's expected performance in 2024 is supported by its "broad oncology business."

The other companies in the top ten of the list includeMSD, PfizerAndSanofi, the sales of each company's new drug are expected to exceed 2 billion US dollars, andGSKAndDaiichi-Sankyo，New drug sales are expected to approach $2 billion.The analyst emphasized,Daiichi-SankyoThe entry into the list is attributed to the success of its antibody-drug conjugate cancer treatment Enhertu, developed in collaboration with AstraZeneca.

In 2024, which company will achieve the highest total pharmaceutical sales?

Evaluate believesRoche will seize the top spot with sales close to 54 billion US dollars.

In its forecast, based on a summary of predictions from sell-side analysts, Evaluate believes that competition for sales among large pharmaceutical companies will be intense.Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., AbbVie, and PfizerIt is also expected to exceed $50 billion in sales.AstraZenecaIt is slightly insufficient.

In 2022,PfizerBecoming the first company in the history of the biopharmaceutical industry to achieve annual sales exceeding 100 billion US dollars, followed closely by Johnson & Johnson's 95 billion US dollars. Due to the decline in demand for Pfizer's pandemic-related products, as well asJohnson & JohnsonThe separation of its consumer health division, Kenvue, has put both companies on an equal footing with their peers.

At the same time, Evaluate predicts that Roche will experience growth in 2024, primarily driven by increasing demand for the multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus, the cancer treatment Tecentriq, and the hemophilia therapy Hemlibra.Evaluate also believes that Roche will have more blockbuster drugs (17) than any other company in 2024.。

In addition, the top ten companies in sales volume are expected to include in 2024Novartis, Bristol-Myers SquibbAndSanofi。

With the substantial revenue growth, Evaluate also forecastsNovo NordiskThe 2024 sales of this Danish company will exceed 40 billion US dollars.Breaking into the top ten list of pharmaceutical companies' sales, replacing GSK.

This number isNovo NordiskMore than twice the sales generated in 2020 (USD 19.4 billion), and even much higher than its revenue in 2022 (USD 25.1 billion), indicating a rapidly growing demand for weight-loss products.

As for the future of diabetes and obesity drugs, Evaluate believes that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will dominate the field for some time. In its top ten list of the most valuable R&D projects, it ranks Novo Nordisk's injectable CagriSema in the first place with a net present value of $30.2 billion, while Eli Lilly's oral orforglipron is ranked second with a value of $13 billion. The only other product in development with a value exceeding $6 billion is Vertex's cystic fibrosis triple therapy vanzacaftor, valued at $10.7 billion.

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