January 8,The 42ndJP Morgan Healthcare Conference Opens as Scheduled. Major pharmaceutical companiesSenior executives, including the leaders of major pharmaceutical companies and the founders of biotech companiesRushed to the scene from all over the worldSan Francisco, toInvestors introduce their latest developments and futurePlanning.
▌Eli Lilly:Healthy Competition Makes the GLP-1 Pie Bigger and BiggerIn 2023, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk engaged in an intense market tug-of-war in the diabetes and obesity fields. At this conference, the CEO of Eli Lilly...David Ricks stated:“Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have been competing in the same field for approximately 100 years, knowing each other well, and regarding each other as a respectable opponent.Such competition is beneficial to accelerating the development of both parties and penetrating more disease areas. A typical example is that Novo Nordisk explored the weight-loss effects of high-dose GLP-1, bringing to our attention another market opportunity for GLP-1 beyond lowering blood sugar levels — weight loss. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has also been continuously promoting its practical application."Apart from Novo Nordisk, large companies attempting to enter the obesity field through mergers and acquisitions are also competitors that Eli Lilly cannot ignore. However,Losing the First-Mover AdvantageLatecomers to GLP-1 must strive to find opportunities beyond weight loss, or they will struggle to gain a foothold.Obesity is actually a disease that affects the whole body, with potential complications such as cardiovascular disease risk, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Therefore, there is still a huge clinical demand in the weight loss field, and its market potential is an endless "blue ocean."David Ricks stated:"Lilly and Novo Nordisk are not competing for a fixed-size cake, but are continuously expanding the application of GLP-1 in other disease areas."▌Sanofi: The new Sanofi is taking shape
Paul Hudson Appointed as CEO of Sanofi Four Years Ago,“New”SanofiFinally, it has begun to take shape. He said that becoming a technology-driven immune giant is Sanofi's goal, and now, Sanofi is in such a phase — "the real moment" has arrived.
In the future,SanofiDevelopment TrendThe head will continue to depend on its relationship withRegeneronCollaborative Blockbuster DrugDupilumab (Trade name:Dupixent）。HudsonExpectedDupixent in2024Will achieve approximately130Sales in the billions of euros, and it will continue to grow thereafter "until the end -- the patent cliff."
To address the patent cliff,SanofiFully committed to research and development, the goal is toExceed €10 billion by 2030New Drug Sales。
▌MSD: Embracing ADC, Unfazed by Keytruda Patent Cliff
The new year brings MSD closer to 2028, when the company will lose patent protection for its mega-blockbuster drug Keytruda.
There is no doubt that, considering the market size of Keytruda, Merck & Co., Inc.'s overall performance may still decline. However, Chief Executive Officer Rob Davis stated that the company will do its best to minimize the business downturn and restore growth as soon as possible. "I know that the focus of discussions at this stage is still on Keytruda and 2028," Davis said, "but we are paying less and less attention to 2028—it's just a year, after all."
At the JPM conference, Davis highlighted its promising pipeline assets, includingThree antibody-drug conjugates introduced from Daiichi SankyoObjectPatritumab deruxtecan, ifinatamab deruxtecan, and raludotatug deruxtecan, as well asAndModernaCooperative CancerVaccine. Among them,Patritumab deruxtecan was granted priority review by the FDA in December 2023 for the third-line treatment of EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer.
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In January last year, MSD revealed that its oncology products are expected to generate annually.$10 billion in revenue. This year, benefiting from ADC candidate drugs and cancer vaccines,MSDTranslate itOncologyThe combined estimate for the next decade has been raised to over 20 billion US dollars.
▌Pfizer：Focus on Maximizing the Value of Acquired Companies, Regain GloryPfizer achieved a brief, overwhelming success during the COVID-19 pandemic, but this situation quickly shifted in another direction in 2023 as the shadow of the virus gradually faded.There is Sorrow and There is Joy, Pfizer had a fruitful year in 2023 with 9 new products approved by the FDA, setting another historical record.CEO of Pfizer, Inc.Albert Bourla stated: "Pfizer used to be the star of the industry, but the significant decline in sales of COVID-19 products last year did hit us hard. However, Pfizer..."Will be in businessAfter RestructuringEntering the "Year of Execution," Pfizer in 2024 is worth looking forward to.”In 2023, Pfizer set a new record in the pharmaceutical industry with a $43 billion acquisition deal, marking a significant step for Pfizer to enhance its competitiveness by entering the ADC sector. "The acquisition of Seagen is key to Pfizer's success in the oncology field. Before 2030, Seagen’s ADC products could generate over $10 billion in revenue for Pfizer."
Besides, Pfizer also hopes to strengthen its competition with GSK in the RSV field. Last year, the RSV vaccines from both companies were approved in May successively, but GSK's...Arexvy Performs Better in the Market (Sales in the First Three Quarters of 2023: $860 Million vs. $375 Million), Pfizer's Product Captures Only 35% of the Total Market Share. "This is not the performance Pfizer should have, and we will regain our position."Albert Bourla Made a Bold Statement.▌Novo Nordisk: Obesity Market, We Are Just Getting Started
More than 25 years of research and accumulation,Novo Nordisk has largely demonstrated their understanding of the mechanisms of obesity. Even after tapping into a multi-billion-dollar market, Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen confidently stated, "We are just getting started."
Obesity ProductsSemaglutide InjectionShortly after Wegovy was launched, its market demand far exceeded the supply, and this inventory uncertainty continued until 2023.
"For the coming year, 'we will significantly increase our product supply,' but the realization of additional capacity is not something that can be achieved overnight. 'This is a journey of continuous capability building over the next few years,'" Jørgensen said.
▌Novartis：Blindly entering the ADC field is not as good as investing well in RDC.2023 was a year when major MNCs went on a frenzy to acquire ADC products. However, Novartis seemed to have no intention of joining this scramble.Novartis CEOVas Narasimhan explained at this conference: "Novartis has been working on the ADC track for a long time but has not achieved positive progress. Therefore, we hope to play to our strengths and increase investment in radioligand drugs."Targeting separatelyProstate-Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) andSomatostatin Receptor (SSTR)PluvictoAndLutathera is the core product of Novartis in the radioligand therapy field. According to Novartis' forecast,Pluvicto's annual sales peak is expected to exceed $3 billion.
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Novartis believes that, compared to ADC drugs, radioligand therapy may have greater safety advantages."If the right target can be found, the therapeutic window of radioligand therapy will be quite wide, which will ensure effectiveness while eliminating safety concerns."Although Novartis did not show interest in other companies' ADC products, it alsoContributedDuring the JPM ConferenceFirst StrokeM&A Transactions——$425 million acquisitionCalypsoBiotech has secured the core product IL-15 monoclonal antibody from the latter.CALY-002。In addition, Novartis alsoIn progressRegarding the AcquisitionCytokineticsEngage in in-depth negotiations. During the JPM conference, acquisition activities were frequent; it’s just that Novartis was not interested in ADC.▌Roche: Hematology Product Annual Sales to Grow 14% by 2026After experiencing a decline in hematology business in the early 2000s, Hemophilia A blockbuster drugsEmicizumab (Trade name：Hemlibra）、ADC Drug Polivy (Generic Name: Polatuzumab Vedotin) andTwo approved within the past 14 monthsCD3/CD20 Bispecific AntibodyMotoreximab (Trade Name：Lunsumio）, Gavilimab (Product Name: ColumviIs helping Roche revitalize its hematology business performance.
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Roche stated,By 2026, the annual compound growth rate of its hematology product sales is expected to reach 14%. The main reason for such a positive forecast isAttributed to Motuximab for the treatment of Follicular Lymphoma (FL), Gfituximab for the treatmentThe Great Potential of Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL).
Currently, Roche is actively expanding two products.The scope of treatment. Among them，Lunsumio is undergoing Phase III studies for first-line treatment of FL, second-line treatment of FL in combination with chemotherapy, and second-line treatment of DLBCL in combination with Polivy, while Columvi is also inRelapsed/Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma, Second-Line Combination ChemotherapyDLBCL and Combination with Polivy and ChemotherapyFirst-line treatment for DLCBL, etc.Phase III Study。
▌AstraZeneca: 5 Key Focus Areas, Determined to Secure the Top ThreeAstraZeneca CFO Aradhana Sarin Reveals Ambitious Goals for Before 2030: Leading Revenue Growth in the Industry, Focusing on 5 Key Areas(Oncology, Rare Diseases, Vaccines and Immunotherapy, Respiratory and Immunology, Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolic Areas)At leastBreaking into the top three, launching 15 drugs.
In order to achieve this goal, AstraZeneca also plans to expand its layout in new technologies, such as RNA therapy, oligonucleotide therapy, gene therapy, etc. Recently,AstraZeneca Acquires Gracell BiotechnologiesThis is one of its actions.▌BMS: The R&D pipeline has never been so rich.At the JPM Conference, CEO of BMSOfficial Chris Boerner 24-minute PThere are 16 minutes in the PT speech regarding itsTwo Acquisition Events at the End of 2023: $14 Billion AcquisitionKarunaTherapeutics, $4.1 Billion Acquisition of RayzeBio: "Our pipeline has never been richer. In the future, BMS's top priority is to deliver the pipeline."Karuna Core ProductMuscarinic Antipsychotic DrugsKarXT has been submitted for marketing approval in the United States.For the treatment of adult schizophrenia, with a PDUFA date of September 26, 2024. Boerner believes that KarXT has multi-billion dollar potential, and RayzeBio's early radiology therapy assets are also expected to thrive.However, what Chris Boerner emphasized most was the R&D pipeline.He indicated that by 2030, BMS will launch over 16 new products, the vast majority of which are...First- or best-in-class, these rich and diverse product pipelines will also become the main driver of BMS's performance growth in the second half of this century.
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▌GSK: Heavily Invested in Respiratory Products, Continuing to Be the "Leader"As a "senior expert" in the respiratory field, GSK has never abandoned any potential targets or products. Last April,GSK Acquires for $2 BillionBELLUS Health, to obtain a P2X3 receptor antagonist for the treatment of refractory chronic coughcamlipaxant. Yesterday,GSK Spent Another $1.4 Billion to Acquire Aiolos, Harvesting a TSLP monoclonal antibodyAIO-001. Both targets have the potential to treat common respiratory diseases and face favorable competition.Top 10 Companies in the Respiratory Field (Source: PharmaCube NextPharma Database)In the P2X3 field, GSK's formidable competitor MSD has recently encountered a major setback—Gefapixant Rejected Again by FDA`, which made GSK, who had fallen slightly behind schedule, breathe a sigh of relief. According to GSK's forecast,`The peak annual sales of camlipaxant may reach 2.5 billion US dollars.When it comes to respiratory diseases, it is necessary to mentionChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Asthma.Last year, Sanofi made a breakthrough in the COPD field, bringing new hope to COPD patients with the first biologic treatment option. GSK is also a "major player" in the COPD field, with its IL-5 monoclonal antibody.Mepolizumab (Trade name:Nucala）Phase III trial for the treatment of COPD is ongoingMATINEEResearch.GSK CEO Emma WalmsleyTableIndicates:“IfMATINEEResearch CapabilityInThe second half of 2024Achieve positive results, thenNucalaYearSalesThe peak will increase by 5.-$1 billion.”
At the same time, GSK's another long-acting IL-5 monoclonal antibody depemokimab will also unveil its Phase III study data in the first half of 2024. This productThe first-line indication is eosinophilic asthma.Emma WalmsleyBelieve that,depemokimabThe peak annual sales could exceed $3 billion, far higher than the forecasted range of $1-2 billion in 2021.Copyright © 2024 PHARMCUBE. All Rights Reserved.
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