Nature Reviews Drug Discovery Unveils Top 10 Global Best-Selling Drugs Forecast for 2024

On December 7, 2023, Paul Verdin, Vice President of Evaluate in London, UK, in Nature Reviews DrugDiscovery Publishes Article "Top Product Forecasts for 2024," Predicting the Top Ten Global Drug Sales for 2024.

Global sales of Merck's anti-PD1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) Keytruda (pembrolizumab) will exceed $27 billion (Table 1), securing the top position on the 2024 anticipated rankings with an unbeatable advantage.This is more than double the sales of most other products in the top ten. In fact, given Keytruda's clinical success across multiple cancers, this situation may persist for years.

According to the latest forecast,Keytruda's sales will continue to grow at least until 2027, and the patent expiration in 2028 may open the door for biosimilars.The product is still in development or undergoing regulatory review for a series of new indications, which could potentially increase sales further.Keytruda's closest competitor in the PD-1/PD-L1 field, Bristol-Myers Squibb's Opdivo (nivolumab), also ranks among the top ten, coming in at seventh place, with projected sales exceeding $11 billion in 2024.

Table 1: Predictions for the Top 10 Best-Selling Drugs Globally in 2024

If the top-ranked product of 2024 could be predicted from last year's rankings, the same might not be true for the second-ranked product.Novo NordiskOzempic(Semaglutide) is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist used for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, which has made it into the top ten, with projected sales exceeding $16 billion in 2024.At this time last year, Ozempic was not among the top ten in sales, but in the past 12 months, expectations for the product's sales in 2024 have grown significantly. Novo Nordisk believes that the increased demand for GLP-1 products driven by diabetes and obesity is a key factor, and the company is making substantial production investments to meet this demand. The GLP-1 market is one of the most watched markets in the industry today, especially from the perspective of obesity, which is considered a major market driver. In fact, Novo Nordisk’s franchise products with semaglutide as the active ingredient—Ozempic, Rybelsus (which treats type 2 diabetes in tablet form rather than via injection), andWegovy(Approved for obesity) -- combine the predictions,Total sales in 2024 will exceed $28 billion, and Keytruda will be pushed off the top spot next year.

The third place goes to Sanofi/Regeneron's anti-IL-4/IL-13 mAb Dupixent (dupilumab), with projected sales of nearly $13.5 billion in 2024.This is mainly due to the strong sales growth of atopic dermatitis and asthma. During 2023, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) The positive results of the clinical trial pave the way for submitting the application for this indication to the FDA by the end of the year, which could become another lucrative market for the product.

In the top ten forecast for 2024, there are several new entrants.Johnson & Johnson's Darzalex (daratumumab) is used forMultiple Myeloma, toThe predicted value of nearly 12 billion US dollars ranks sixth. Human papillomavirus (HPV) from Merck (Merck & Co. / CSL).HPV) The vaccine Gardasil unexpectedly jumped to the ninth position on the list, with projected sales reaching $10 billion --Despite the vaccine having been on the market for nearly two decades, strong demand from countries including China is considered one of the driving factors.

AbbVie's Skyrizi (risankizumab) has entered the top ten in the new drug rankings with a forecast value close to 10 billion US dollars.Outside of new entrants, Gilead Sciences' Biktarvy (bictegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide), a combination antiviral therapy for HIV treatment, rose to fifth place, while Bristol-Myers Squibb/Pfizer's blood thinner Eliquis (apixaban) climbed one spot to fourth place.

Among the top ten predicted products for 2024, the absence of several products is particularly noticeable.Pfizer/BioNTechThe COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty (tozinameran) firmly ranks eighth, while other COVID-19 therapies and vaccines have dropped out of the top ten.This aligns with the tail end of the pandemic, including Pfizer's antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir) and Moderna’s vaccine Spikevax (elasomeran). Additionally, some of the largest and most enduring brands in recent times, such as AbbVie's Humira (adalimumab) and Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara (ustekinumab), are absent due to the loss of market exclusivity. The upper echelons of the industry are undergoing changes, and looking ahead to 2025, especially with rapidly heating markets like obesity, further turbulence is entirely possible.

References:

 https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-023-00198-3

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