East Securities - Mabwell Biosciences (688062) - 2025 Interim Report Review: Commercial Breakthrough Imminent with Multiple BD Deals Closed

(Source: Research Report Tiger)

Core Viewpoints

Dysuzumab Growth Accelerates, Multi-Variety Sales Growth Expected. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 101 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%), including dysuzumab sales revenue of 100 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 51.59%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -551 million yuan (a year-on-year change of 23.9%). Dysuzumab's commercialization results in the first half of the year were remarkable. With the launch of the Chongqing cooperation project for "Milesure," the expansion of "Wellhealth" into indications for bone metastases in cancer patients, and the commercial rollout in emerging markets, dysuzumab still has significant growth potential. Meanwhile, the company has completed the MAH transfer work for "Junmaitai," received approval and authorized Qilu Pharmaceutical for the commercialization of its first innovative product "Milelife," and is about to submit the NDA for its biosimilar of aflibercept. The company's multi-product sales growth phase is imminent.

BD Continues to Advance, Multiple Pipelines Show Potential. In June 2025, the company completed two BD deals: 1) granting Qilu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. the rights to develop, manufacture, improve, utilize, and commercialize "Mileson" within Greater China, with a total transaction value of up to 500 million RMB (including an upfront payment of 380 million RMB); 2) granting CALICO the rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize IL-11 antibody outside of Greater China, with a total transaction value of up to 596 million USD (including an upfront payment of 25 million USD). Additionally, the company’s pipeline includes highly competitive products such as Nectin-4 ADC, ST2 antibody, CDH17 ADC, and LILRB4/CD3 TCE, all of which also hold BD potential.

Clinical Progress Proceeding Smoothly, Launch of New TCE Varieties. Over the past 25 years, the company has gained three clinical trial approvals for two varieties both domestically in China and internationally: 1) Phase II clinical trial of Nectin-4 ADC combined with JS207 (PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody) for advanced solid tumors (already initiated); 2) Phase Ib/II clinical trial of B7H3 ADC combined with PD-1 inhibitor, with or without anti-tumor therapy, for patients with advanced solid tumors; 3) CDH17 ADC received FDA approval to conduct a Phase I/II study for patients with advanced colorectal cancer and other advanced gastrointestinal tumors. Additionally, the first product from the company’s TCE platform, LILRB4/CD3 TCE, is planned for dual IND submission in China and the U.S. in the first half of 2026, while multiple TCE projects targeting solid tumors are expected to enter the preclinical stage successively.

Profit Forecast and Investment Advice

According to the company's mid-year report for 25 years, we have raised the company's revenue forecast for 25 years, lowered expenses, and reduced revenue forecasts for 26-27 years. We predict that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 25-27 years will be -6.40/-7.71/-3.05 billion yuan (the original forecast for 25-27 years was -8.16/-3.93/-0.59 billion yuan). Using the valuation method of discounted free cash flow, we predict that the company's reasonable market value is 22.052 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 55.19 yuan. We maintain a "Buy" rating.

Risk Warning

Risks such as the progress of innovative drug development falling short of expectations, biosimilar products entering centralized procurement, increased competition or sales below expectations, sales expenses exceeding forecasts, and negative impacts on valuation due to a decline in the company's medium- to long-term profitability.