2018 Pharmaceutical Market Trends in Oncology and Diabetes Chronic Disease Management: Insights for Startups
It is well recognized that chronic disease management, a key branch of internet healthcare, has garnered significant attention, with oncology and diabetes being particularly prominent. This emphasis stems largely from the substantial proportion of medical expenditures accounted for by patients with these two conditions. For chronic disease management, beyond the revenue model based on service fees, collaborating with pharmaceutical companies in specialized therapeutic areas as their market and channel partners represents another viable profit model. Therefore, it is essential to understand the future trends of the pharmaceutical markets for these two disease categories.
According to a report titled “Global Medicines Outlook 2018” published by IMS, the global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2018, representing a 30% increase from 2013. Oncology and diabetes therapies lead the market, with respective sizes of $100 billion and $78 billion. VCBeat has compiled relevant information on oncology and diabetes from the report to provide insights into the characteristics of the 2018 pharmaceutical market.
Both in mature and emerging markets, oncology and diabetes are expected to maintain high compound annual growth rates (CAGR) over the next three years.
In developed markets, oncology and diabetes drugs will rank first and second in total sales volume in 2018, with compound annual growth rates of 7–10% and 12–15%, respectively. In emerging markets, oncology and diabetes products also rank among the top contributors to total sales (notably not fourth or fifth), achieving high compound annual growth rates of 12–15% and 10–13%, respectively.
Oncology drugs continue to lead in developed markets and also hold a leading position among specialty pharmaceuticals in emerging markets.
In emerging markets, the top three therapeutic areas are pain management, antibiotics, and hypertension; whereas in developed markets, specialty drugs such as oncology and autoimmune therapies hold a distinct advantage.
Among the top 20 drugs by sales in developed markets, six classes will face patent expirations over the next five years, leading to a significant decline in their growth rates.
A Large Number of New Oncology Drugs Are Awaiting Market Launch
As we can see, a large number of new oncology drugs are poised to hit the market over the next three years. This suggests that pharmaceutical companies will likely seek partners for marketing and distribution channels. Within pharma companies’ internet healthcare strategies, VCBeat believes that chronic disease management solutions integrating both hardware and software may have an opportunity to secure a significant position.
Globally, oncology drugs account for 31% of new drugs preparing for market launch, with 25% in the late pre-launch stage (including Phase II clinical trials, Phase III clinical trials, and pre-registration), which is double that of the second-ranked category.
Among drugs in the pre-launch pipeline, the top three accounted for 46% of the total volume.
Biopharmaceuticals account for 36% of the late pre-launch stage, and represent 45% of oncology drugs in this phase.
As many oncology drugs have received FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation, the approval process for oncology therapies will be significantly accelerated. Among all Breakthrough Therapy Designations, 46% are from the oncology field.
Central nervous system (CNS) disease medications rank second, with a primary focus on three areas: mental health, multiple sclerosis, and neuropathy.
In 2018, the total market size for oncology drugs will reach $100 billion.
In 2020, the number of cancer patients is projected to increase by 31%, and the total market size for oncology drugs is expected to grow by 50% by 2018, reaching $100 billion.
In 2018, the net growth of oncology drugs is expected to be between $25 billion and $45 billion compared with 2013.
The launch of a large number of new drugs in 2012 and 2013, along with other upcoming new drugs, drove higher growth in developed country markets.
In developed country markets, the increasing use of targeted therapies is driving up expenditure levels while achieving higher survival rates.
Biologics will play a more significant role in the field of oncology.
Slowing Growth in Diabetes Drug Spending
In developed country markets, the total market size for diabetes medications increased from $35 billion to $66 billion in 2018.
The growth in the United States in 2014 was driven by price increases for new insulin products.
In developed country markets, new therapies such as GLP-1 receptor antagonists, DPP-IV inhibitors, and SGLT2 inhibitors will continue to drive overall market growth.
The wave of biosimilar insulins will bring about significant market changes and reduce costs for patients with diabetes.
In emerging markets, spending on diabetes is projected to grow by 10–13% over the next five years.
Growth in emerging markets is primarily driven by rising incidence and diagnosis rates, leading to substantial use of insulin and metformin; adoption of new therapies may take more time.
80% of people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries.
Innovative Therapies, Technologies, and Policy Support Help Combat the Global Spread of Diabetes
Rising obesity rates are accelerating the global spread of diabetes. Newly launched weight-loss medications and diabetes therapies capable of promoting weight reduction are increasingly being used for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes and its complications.
In high-income countries, 30% of patients with diabetes remain undiagnosed; this figure reaches 90% in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, approximately 175 million people are unaware that they have diabetes.
Complications arising from undiagnosed or uncontrolled diabetes impose greater financial burdens on patients and healthcare payers.
Addressing the Growing Patient Population and Costs Requires New Disease Management Approaches.
New applications and devices can help identify high-risk patients, encourage healthy behaviors, improve adherence, provide better methods for blood glucose control, and enhance the quality of life for future diabetes patients.
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